Andrii-zvorygin Peak-oil Meeting Transcript — April 16, 2026
Hook: April Peak Oil Chat: Hormuz Nitrogen and Oil w/ Simon Michaux, John Peach & Dan Gowin
Andrii-zvorygin · Peak-oil · April 16, 2026
Summary
Whole Stream Summary The global energy landscape is currently undergoing a structural collapse, where major oil discoveries can no longer satisfy consumption rates, forcing the U.S. and Europe into severe rationing while China strategically hoards reserves to prevent metabolic collapse. This scarcity has weaponized a fractured supply chain, turning essential inputs like helium, fertilizer, and coal into critical choke points that drive a forced economic relocalization. The transcript argues that this chaos is not random but a calculated shift away from a fiat-based imperial system toward a tangible, resource-backed order where physical sovereignty becomes the new currency of survival. In the middle of the stream, the focus shifts to the deliberate orchestration of "techno feudalism" by unaccountable corporations like Google and Meta, who manipulate supply chains and ignite suspicious fires to enforce shutdowns that degrade public services and consolidate digital control.
Top Newsworthy Developments
- US Oil Production Peaks By 2027: US government projections indicate that domestic oil production has already peaked and is expected to decline to approximately 13 million barrels per day by 2027, a drop from the recent high of 13.8 million. This decline occurs because current investment levels, estimated around fifty billion dollars annually, are insufficient to maintain output as the energy required to extract oil eventually equals the energy gained from the fuel itself.
- China shuts down wells to save reserves: China has strategically shut down domestic wells and halted exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel to artificially lower its consumption from 16 million to roughly 13–14 million barrels per day, thereby avoiding the depletion of its strategic reserves while maintaining access to an additional 10 million barrels daily via Russian and Kazakh pipelines. This distributist maneuver highlights how China prioritizes long-term resource sovereignty over immediate extraction, contrasting sharply with the US and Japan which hold significant strategic petroleum reserves but lack China's ability to bypass them through international trade agreements.
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Transcript Notice
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Full Transcript
Global Oil Production Decline Since 1990s
Since the 1990s, major oil discoveries have failed to keep pace with global consumption, leaving the world behind the critical production threshold required to sustain modern society. This decline in new field discoveries, highlighted by data from the International Energy Agency, Exxon, and Rosneft, signals a structural deficit in oil supply that threatens long-term economic stability. The situation is further complicated by geopolitical tensions in the Hormuz Strait, which exacerbates the risks associated with this dwindling resource base.
00:00:00 SPEAKER_306: Yep.
00:00:02 SPEAKER_307: Greetings in the love and light of the One Infinite Creator.
00:00:25 SPEAKER_307: I'm Andrei Vorgan, and I'm joined here today with Dan, John, Leon Dune, and then
00:00:57 SPEAKER_308: we also had Roger, and then
00:01:55 SPEAKER_308: Simon is coming as well.
00:02:02 SPEAKER_308: And today we are going to be looking at the Hormuz situation, as well as the effects on oil and agriculture.
US Oil Production Peaks By 2027
US government projections indicate that domestic oil production has already peaked and is expected to decline to approximately 13 million barrels per day by 2027, a drop from the recent high of 13.8 million. This decline occurs because current investment levels, estimated around fifty billion dollars annually, are insufficient to maintain output as the energy required to extract oil eventually equals the energy gained from the fuel itself. Consequently, the nation faces a structural shortfall where maintaining flat production requires billions in capital that simply cannot be generated to offset the inevitable drop in shale yields.
00:02:30 SPEAKER_307: And we're going to first start with a presentation from Dan, and then John Peach, and then
00:02:53 SPEAKER_307: hopefully us.
00:03:12 SPEAKER_307: John Peach, and then
00:03:51 SPEAKER_307: hopefully Simon will join us.
00:04:06 SPEAKER_308: Last time he had some computer troubles.
00:04:27 SPEAKER_308: Okay, go ahead, Dan.
Shale Production Peaks and Reserves Decline
Major oil executives from Diamondback, Occidental, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips have confirmed in SEC filings that U.S. shale oil production has peaked, prompting a sharp reduction in domestic investment as companies cannibalize infrastructure to prioritize profitable crude oil over marginal natural gas. This strategic retreat is driving the industry toward new frontiers like Argentina, while a recent "Come to Jesus" meeting revealed that even giants like Exxon Mobil and Shell possess only 7 to 11 years of proven reserves, signaling a critical depletion of America's oil base.
00:04:39 SPEAKER_308: Thank you, sir.
00:04:48 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:04:49 SPEAKER_308: So you want the screen?
00:04:50 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:04:51 SPEAKER_308: Yeah.
00:04:51 SPEAKER_308: You ready?
China shuts down wells to save reserves
China has strategically shut down domestic wells and halted exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel to artificially lower its consumption from 16 million to roughly 13–14 million barrels per day, thereby avoiding the depletion of its strategic reserves while maintaining access to an additional 10 million barrels daily via Russian and Kazakh pipelines. This distributist maneuver highlights how China prioritizes long-term resource sovereignty over immediate extraction, contrasting sharply with the US and Japan which hold significant strategic petroleum reserves but lack China's ability to bypass them through international trade agreements. The transcript further notes that this approach prevents the "metabolic collapse" of byproducts like helium, which is extracted as a liquid during the
00:04:52 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:04:52 SPEAKER_308: Yes.
00:04:52 SPEAKER_308: Go ahead.
00:04:53 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:04:54 SPEAKER_308: So that's my name is Dan Gown, Chief Technology Officer of Electron Power Technology, which is a steel company.
00:05:00 SPEAKER_308: This here is just simply a notice to say this is simply for educational purposes only.
Type Seven Tank Hydrogen Storage
A Type Seven hydrogen tank capable of holding 56 kilograms at 200 bar is demonstrated as a viable energy storage solution that could theoretically power a Toyota Hilux hybrid for 4,000 miles on a single fill, fitting conveniently into a pickup truck bed. The speaker emphasizes converting energy metrics to joules per kilogram to ensure an equitable comparison between hydrogen and battery technologies, arguing that current industry confusion between BTUs and watt-hours obscures the true energy density advantages of hydrogen. This segment highlights the potential for hydrogen to serve as a superior, high-density fuel source for heavy-duty applications, challenging the dominance of battery electric vehicles in the transport sector.
00:05:06 SPEAKER_308: This is not any type of investment advice.
00:05:08 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:05:09 SPEAKER_308: The first thing we're going to start off with is where we've been and where we're going.
00:05:15 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:05:15 SPEAKER_308: So this is from the International Energy Agency.
00:05:18 SPEAKER_308: A lot of this originally came out of Exxon and also Rosneft Energy.
Fence Removal Causes Fertilizer Shortages
The speaker clarifies that the presented analysis of the fertilizer crisis is a provisional "best guess" based on statements from banks, insurers, and oil and gas companies rather than a confirmed outcome. A specific consequence of removing fences is that large cattle operations can no longer naturally fertilize fields by grazing, forcing them to rely on expensive sludge distribution systems instead of simply turning cattle out. The speaker argues this is a fixable problem if one thinks "out of the box," noting that the loss of natural fertilization from free-range cattle is the most severe aspect of the shortage.
00:05:22 SPEAKER_308: And basically, what it talks about is we haven't been finding some large oil fields since the nineteen nineties.
00:05:29 SPEAKER_308: Basically, in order to maintain our society, we need to be discovering new oil fields.
00:05:34 SPEAKER_308: Basically, in excess of that data, that red dotted line that you see right there.
00:05:39 SPEAKER_308: So, we're actually kind of behind the eight ball when it comes to world oil production and oil fields.
00:05:46 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, if I remember correctly, John was saying that we've been producing more than we've been discovering since 1985.
00:06:02 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Manure Transport and Sludge Contamination
The chapter highlights the distributist critique of industrial agribusiness, where corn is shipped from Iowa to North Carolina, resulting in pig manure being dumped into slurry ponds rather than returned to local fields. This practice, mirrored with cattle in California, creates a systemic failure to recycle nutrients because the cost of transporting manure thousands of miles back to depleted farms is prohibitive for individual farmers. The discussion further notes that this industrial separation leads to contaminated sludge rendering fields unusable and turns nutrient-rich waste into a liquid liability rather than a resource for the community.
00:06:06 SPEAKER_308: This year, but the earlier, yeah, 85 be a good number.
00:06:15 SPEAKER_308: Like I said.
00:06:18 SPEAKER_308: 85 would be a good number.
00:06:23 SPEAKER_308: Like I said, this says yeah.
00:06:28 SPEAKER_308: Since the nineteen nineties, we've been definitely underperforming.
00:06:34 SPEAKER_308: So this here basically just to keep production flat, we do
Global Supply Chains and Coal Shifts
As global supply chains fracture due to the collapse of cheap energy-dependent shipping, manufacturers are forced to shift from a "just-in-time" model to warehousing components locally to mitigate shortages. This transition is occurring alongside a critical depletion of high-quality anthracite coal in Pennsylvania, leaving only lower-grade lignite reserves as the primary fuel source for power plants. The speaker suggests that these energy and logistical shifts are driving a strategic pivot toward domestic coal production to compensate for anticipated oil deficits and supply instability.
00:06:44 SPEAKER_308: require additional billions of dollars invested in existing fields just to maintain production flat, whether it's oil and natural gas.
00:07:13 SPEAKER_308: Again, this is from the International Energy Agency.
00:07:24 SPEAKER_308: Originally, I saw this two years ago from Exxon Mobil, and then
00:07:42 SPEAKER_308: Rise Status added their own twist to it to actually flesh out the billions of dollars that we required.
00:08:00 SPEAKER_308: Billions of dollars that would require just to maintain world oil production flat using our existing wells and natural gas.
00:08:19 SPEAKER_308: I'm wondering if this is talking.
Just in Case Economic Relocalization
The chapter argues that economic relocalization is becoming necessary because rising transport costs make distant trade less viable, forcing production closer to consumption centres. Simultaneously, the geopolitical instability in the Middle East, specifically regarding the Strait of Hormuz, is triggering a multi-dimensional conflict that forces the renegotiation of global commodity contracts and breaks existing agreements. This shifting ground creates distinct winners and losers as companies face forced mergers and broken deals, illustrating how force majeure clauses are rewriting the economic landscape.
00:08:24 SPEAKER_308: If how much is the current investment level?
00:08:32 SPEAKER_308: Not not enough.
00:08:35 SPEAKER_308: Yeah.
00:08:36 SPEAKER_308: Oh, okay.
00:08:37 SPEAKER_308: So, do
00:08:39 SPEAKER_308: you have like a ballpark?
Fertilizer Shortage Threatens Planting Season
With a mere 3–5% disruption triggering market panic, the current situation is far worse as roughly 20% of global fertilizer production is offline due to the war, directly threatening the critical northern hemisphere planting season. While disruptions also affect oil, LNG, and plastics, the transcript highlights that the inability to secure sufficient fertilizer supplies poses an existential risk to global food production this year. This supply chain collapse illustrates how the conflict has weaponized essential agricultural inputs, forcing a distributist reckoning on whether current storage levels can sustain farmers without state intervention or alternative production methods.
00:08:44 SPEAKER_308: Are we right now at the hundred billion investment or the zero?
00:08:57 SPEAKER_308: No, no, not not.
00:09:01 SPEAKER_308: Maybe maybe fifty billion a year.
00:09:07 SPEAKER_308: Maybe maybe fifty billion.
00:09:11 SPEAKER_308: I think you're right.
00:09:15 SPEAKER_308: Okay, but it's definitely not 200 billion to avoid any type of energy crisis.
Oil and Gas Supply Chain Crisis
European gas reserves are critically depleted after winter, creating an acute physical shortage that prevents the necessary replenishment for the upcoming season. Banking actuary software modelling indicates this supply chain failure will force severe rationing and food shortages, specifically impacting the production of fertilizers like urea and ammonia. These projected outcomes represent a concrete, severe consequence already flagged in financial models, distinguishing the current crisis from mere market fluctuations.
00:09:29 SPEAKER_308: Okay, I see.
00:09:32 SPEAKER_308: Really behind the eight ball.
00:09:37 SPEAKER_308: So, it's really not till this year they really started looking at.
00:09:39 SPEAKER_308: So, this is from the Energy Information Agency from the United States government, and that shows that.
00:09:42 SPEAKER_308: I'd just like to point out that at some point, investing more money does not get you more oil because investing money is investing energy.
00:09:47 SPEAKER_308: And at some point, investing enough money means you're investing as much energy as you're getting.
Helium shortage halts semiconductor production
A critical shortage of helium, with approximately one-third of global supply currently offline due to disruptions in Qatar, is halting semiconductor production because the gas is essential for growing silicon crystals and maintaining the inert environments required for laser-based quality control. This crisis exposes the fragility of modern industrial flow rates, as the inability to move physical commodities like helium and sulfur disrupts the entire supply chain for metals, fertilizers, and high-tech manufacturing. The situation highlights how reliance on specific flow rates rather than static reserves has destroyed our ability to produce essential physical commodities, forcing a re-evaluation of whether we can truly "make do" when these critical industrial inputs vanish.
00:09:50 SPEAKER_308: Agree, Charlie.
00:09:50 SPEAKER_308: Agree.
00:09:51 SPEAKER_308: Eventually, you'll get for.
00:09:51 SPEAKER_308: Yeah.
00:09:52 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:09:52 SPEAKER_308: Remember, we have the world's central banks basically print money, so you know that's kind of kind of a wrap.
Venezuela Sequence and Financial System Overhaul
The transcript details a alleged multi-year strategy where the Trump administration utilised executive orders to bypass due process, culminating in a 2026 operation to seize Venezuela's head of state and lock up its oil revenues to force the nation into a dependency role for the entire South American continent. This geopolitical maneuver is presented as part of a broader "financial system overhaul" involving the Base Three Banking Accord, which mandates a transition away from fiat instruments and the sale of paper precious metals toward a system backed by physical assets. Through this lens, the actions are framed not as isolated events but as a coordinated distributist shift to replace speculative financial flows with tangible, resource-based control points.
00:09:55 SPEAKER_308: But this here's from the Department of Energy, and it shows that oil production in the United States has already peaked, and we're in.
00:10:00 SPEAKER_308: And they're stating, according to them, they're stating by the time we hit 2027, we'll be down to about 13 million barrels a day.
00:10:04 SPEAKER_308: Our peak was about 13.8 million barrels a day.
00:10:06 SPEAKER_308: And this is what they're what the United States government is projecting.
00:10:08 SPEAKER_308: This first one, what production is next one?
00:10:10 SPEAKER_308: So the shale production now.
Global Imperial System Disrupted
The transcript describes the collapse of the London-based petrodollar empire as a "global imperial system" that is being disrupted by the U.S. military's untenable position in Iran and the destruction of American diplomatic reputation. This disruption forces a shift from an invisible fiat currency empire to a new power bloc where domestic oil from the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela becomes vastly more valuable, benefiting Russia and regional allies. The speaker frames this transition as a clash between "techno feudalism" overseeing regional blocks and the rest of the world seeking self-determination, asserting that current global conflicts are orchestrated "fake theatre" designed to wipe out the old economic system.
00:10:11 SPEAKER_308: So shale production falls, and the first year, 74% production falls.
00:10:13 SPEAKER_308: We're talking about most of that production is just as actual oil.
00:10:15 SPEAKER_308: By the next year, it falls another forty-seven percent and switches to gas.
00:10:17 SPEAKER_308: And by the third year, it falls another ten percent, and therefore the production is down into single digits.
00:10:21 SPEAKER_308: By the fourth year, actually the steel pipe is cannibalized.
00:10:23 SPEAKER_308: The United States government is making a mistake here because they think that unless these wells are plugged, they're still producing natural gas.
Technofuturism and Economic Devastation
The speaker argues that the current push for AI, data centres, and advanced semiconductors represents a twisted form of technocracy known as "technofuturism," which aims to consolidate economic power through a planned financial crash and subsequent debt collection. This strategy relies on creating a crisis via vectors such as energy shortages, food system failures, or cyber-information bombs to force the population into a transhumanist-controlled system. Ultimately, the speaker views this trajectory not as irrational but as a calculated move to seize control of society under the guise of technological necessity.
00:10:27 SPEAKER_308: The truth is, is where these guys make their money is actually oil, not gas.
00:10:30 SPEAKER_308: So most of the wells, simply the valves are turned off, and they cannibalize the pipe for plenty of time to producing well.
00:10:34 SPEAKER_308: Could you clarify what do
00:10:35 SPEAKER_308: you mean by the pipe is cannibalized?
00:10:47 SPEAKER_308: They they they they turn the valve off on the wellhead, and they disconnect the pipes that were connected to the wellhead.
00:11:26 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
AI Data Centre Cancellations Explained
The transcript highlights a "battle" between the energy crisis and chip shortages that is accelerating the cancellation of projected US AI data centres, while simultaneously destroying a significant portion of the industry's infrastructure in the Middle East and UAE. This destruction of compute capacity is linked to a recent decline in AI quality, framing the rollout of artificial intelligence as a project increasingly blocked by physical resource constraints and growing public pushback against the promised job creation. The discussion underscores how the concentration of these energy-intensive facilities in specific geopolitical zones makes the AI boom vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and local opposition, rather than being an unstoppable technological takeover.
00:11:27 SPEAKER_308: So so then
00:11:33 SPEAKER_308: you can't get the natural gas.
00:11:33 SPEAKER_308: Right.
00:11:33 SPEAKER_308: So there's nothing coming out of that wellhead.
00:11:34 SPEAKER_308: The reason why I'm saying talking about that is because.
00:11:35 SPEAKER_308: You have a charge from the Department from the United States government from the Department of Energy where these all these wells are only producing one or two or three percent and it goes out to you know perpetuity.
AI as Control Structure for Economic Decline
The transcript argues that modern economic vulnerability stems not from physical resources but from the disruption of critical logistical flow points, such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal, which are increasingly controlled by non-Western entities like Chinese state-owned firms. This shift undermines the myth of free market mechanisms, revealing a reality where physical supply chains are weaponized choke points that can force industries out of business. Consequently, the speaker posits that AI will likely function not as a benevolent tool for human improvement, but as a control structure designed by "bad actors" to manage and exacerbate this engineered economic decline.
00:11:40 SPEAKER_308: In reality, that's not true because the industry is cannibalizing the pipe because the value that that's still pipe.
00:11:42 SPEAKER_308: It doesn't.
00:11:42 SPEAKER_308: It's not economical for them to produce one or you know two or three percent gas when they're when they're just not going to make that much money.
00:11:45 SPEAKER_308: They make the most of money on on crude oil, the actual that light sweet crude.
00:11:47 SPEAKER_308: Shell.
00:11:47 SPEAKER_308: You say we cannibalize the pipes in the ground or well above the ground.
Techno Feudalism and Corporate Control
The chapter critiques "techno feudalism," arguing that a handful of unaccountable corporations like Google and Meta control essential AI infrastructure, allowing them to arbitrarily restrict access and degrade free services regardless of public need. This corporate dominance is compounded by a coordinated energy crisis where strategic supply chain shortages and suspicious, high-frequency fires at refineries and production facilities appear designed to force shutdowns rather than result from random chance. Ultimately, the transcript suggests these events are not accidental but organised maneuvers by these powerful entities to maintain control over the digital and physical economy.
00:11:49 SPEAKER_308: Above the ground.
00:11:49 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, they turn the wellhead off and they just they remove all the pipes above ground.
00:11:51 SPEAKER_308: Okay, cool.
00:11:51 SPEAKER_308: Thanks.
00:11:51 SPEAKER_308: The next one here is yet the CEOs of Diamondback, Occidental, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips have already stated in their SEC filings to investors that shale oil production in the United States is peaked.
00:11:55 SPEAKER_308: So they're putting their money, and they've also cut back on their investment in shale production in the United States to go along with that.
System Dynamics Model of Oil Closure
The speaker critiques neoclassical economic models that treat oil as a negligible 2–3% input, arguing instead that the closure of Gulf refineries removes critical heavy sour crude that cannot be easily substituted with lighter grades like U.S. shale or Norwegian light. This loss forces a systemic shift where the economy, often viewed as a simple equilibrium, actually faces compounding irreversibilities because diesel—a fuel essential for tractors and food production—drops by 20–35%, threatening the very food supply that neoclassical theory assumes is only 4% of the economy. Consequently, the model suggests that rather than a temporary disruption resolving in six to twelve months, the closure creates
00:11:58 SPEAKER_308: Oh, I see.
00:11:58 SPEAKER_308: So, so really, like a well only lasts for four years.
00:11:59 SPEAKER_308: It doesn't have that long taper that we usually see.
00:12:00 SPEAKER_308: Right.
00:12:00 SPEAKER_308: Okay, I see.
00:12:01 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
Oil Price Spikes and Demand Destruction
Rising oil prices above $150 per barrel could trigger a financial system seizure and a severe contraction in GDP, driven by a lack of viable substitutes for energy. This scarcity simultaneously cripples the green energy transition by disrupting the sulfur supply chain needed for copper extraction and threatens global food security through the collapse of nitrogen fertilizer production via the Haber-Bosch process. Ultimately, the transcript argues that these cascading failures in energy, metals, and agriculture will cause demand destruction that masks a fundamental inability to sustain the current economic and industrial model.
00:12:01 SPEAKER_308: And and like I was saying, all those companies have cut back their investing in oil production in the United States.
00:12:03 SPEAKER_308: Right now, I know they're they're they're shipping horizontal drilling and fracking equipment is being sent down to Argentina.
00:12:05 SPEAKER_308: That's the new frontier for the Shell folks, the Shell horizontal drilling and fracking folks.
00:12:07 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:12:07 SPEAKER_308: So America's oil reserves so proven.
00:12:08 SPEAKER_308: So so one of the things that happened last week, going into this week, actually two weeks ago, I was on April second.
Diesel Worse Than Crude Explained
The speaker argues that diesel prices will remain elevated even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens because crude oil cannot be easily substituted and shale production cannot fill the resulting supply gaps. This scenario highlights a systemic failure under neoclassical economic models, where the loss of sulfur reserves will permanently damage global mining operations and make an energy transition impossible due to the desperate pressure to maintain business-as-usual operations. Consequently, the speaker suggests that the economic effects of the closure will compound and persist for years rather than resolving within a year as traditional models predict.
00:12:10 SPEAKER_308: I had to go to what they called it the Come to Jesus meeting, and there was bankers there, the oil and gas companies executives, and insurance company was there, and that's where these numbers came out of that meeting.
00:12:15 SPEAKER_308: So Exxon Mobil stating to investors that they have reserves that are proven or probable.
00:12:16 SPEAKER_308: Exxon Mobil has eleven years worth reserves.
00:12:17 SPEAKER_308: Chevron has eight point five years worth reserves.
00:12:18 SPEAKER_308: British Petroleum is seven point nine, and Royal Dutch Shell is only seven years.
00:12:20 SPEAKER_308: Right now, the Gulf of America is producing one million barrels a day, and by twenty thirty, they will peak out at two million barrels a day.
Building a Parallel System on Small Scale
The speaker argues that attempting to convince entrenched power structures to adopt distributist principles is futile, comparing the effort to "teaching a pig to sing," which only provokes a defensive immune response. Instead of engaging in unproductive diplomatic debates or trying to reform the existing fossil-fuel economy, the strategy is to build a small-scale, regional parallel system that operates on biophysical rules and short value chains. By making this alternative system visibly successful on the ground, observers will naturally realize that the current paradigm of centralized control and conflict is exhausting, prompting them to voluntarily adopt the new, cooperative model.
00:12:23 SPEAKER_308: The banks are simply stating due to their projections and the cost and overhead maintaining platforms six hundred miles out in the Gulf of Mexico that that'll probably end in twenty thirty seven.
00:12:26 SPEAKER_308: Wow.
00:12:26 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:12:27 SPEAKER_308: Right now, Canada is exporting four million barrels a day to the United States.
00:12:28 SPEAKER_308: That Canada actually produces five.
00:12:29 SPEAKER_308: They they consume one million barrels a day, but they export the other four.
Ranking Industrial System Complexity
The discussion highlights how air travel disruptions in the U.S. were orchestrated under false pretenses rather than admitting to a systemic catastrophe, reflecting a broader pattern of masking industrial failures. Participants debate the precise definition of "entropy," distinguishing it from low-grade heat in thermochemical simulations used to assess the complexity of industrial processes like copper production. Ultimately, the chapter connects these technical assessments to Tainter's theory of societal collapse, questioning how we rank the complexity of industrial systems to understand their stability and potential for failure.
00:12:30 SPEAKER_308: And then
00:12:30 SPEAKER_308: Guyana's one million, Venezuela's another million, and Brazil's two.
00:12:38 SPEAKER_308: So In Brazil's too, so there's, so just in the Americas, an additional eight million.
00:12:50 SPEAKER_308: So that should cover basically the reason why the United States government feels like they're in this comfortable position, why they're not at risk with what's going on in the Middle East.
00:13:16 SPEAKER_308: And now I'm going to switch over to what's going in the Middle East.
00:13:27 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:13:28 SPEAKER_308: So this is from Lloyd's of London, and it shows the traffic before the Straits of Hormuz were shut down, averaged at about 120.
00:13:51 SPEAKER_308: Average is about 120 million.
00:13:55 SPEAKER_308: I'm sorry, 120 vessels per day.
00:14:01 SPEAKER_308: We're transiting the Straits of Hormuz as of 2028.
00:14:09 SPEAKER_308: That's dropped down to single digits as what vessels are actually transiting through the Straits of Hormuz.
00:14:25 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:14:26 SPEAKER_308: So this is on April 9th, 2026.
00:14:26 SPEAKER_308: The government of Iran announced the Straits of Hormuz were deemed a hazard to navigation due to the possibility of President.
00:14:27 SPEAKER_308: The possibility and presence of anti-ship mines.
00:14:28 SPEAKER_308: Whether they're there or not is irrelevant.
00:14:28 SPEAKER_308: The point is that they made this official statement.
00:14:28 SPEAKER_308: Right.
00:14:28 SPEAKER_308: The insurance industry definitely took notice of this, which goes back to one of the reasons why nothing's really transiting out of the Straits of Hormuz right now.
00:14:30 SPEAKER_308: This here's from Lloyd's of London.
00:14:30 SPEAKER_308: This is from Lloyd's.
00:14:30 SPEAKER_308: As long as the U.S.
00:14:31 SPEAKER_308: military is in the Persian Gulf, shipping in the Persian Gulf is, I wouldn't say uninsurable, but the rates are going to be extremely high, and the reasoning is the country of Iran is not a movable object.
00:14:32 SPEAKER_308: I'm going to meet Charlie there.
00:14:33 SPEAKER_308: Okay, go ahead, Dan.
00:14:33 SPEAKER_308: Lloyd's of London has made note that that Israel's battle with Hamas has gone on for decades.
00:14:34 SPEAKER_308: You know, terrorism is cheap.
00:14:34 SPEAKER_308: You know, therefore, when it comes to very large crude carriers, especially liquefied natural gas carriers, that is.
00:14:35 SPEAKER_308: Natural gas carriers—that is—that is not a safe activity.
00:14:35 SPEAKER_308: So, as long as, like I said, according to them, as long as the U.S.
00:14:36 SPEAKER_308: military is in the Persian Gulf, shipping in the Persian Gulf is not insurable.
00:14:37 SPEAKER_308: Oh, I see.
00:14:37 SPEAKER_308: Okay, okay.
00:14:37 SPEAKER_308: The ships that are passing are like either from India, Pakistan, or from China.
00:14:38 SPEAKER_308: They're part of the Black Fleet, therefore don't have any insurance anyway, and they're not part of the Lloyd's of London insurance system.
00:14:39 SPEAKER_308: So that basically that really affects the Western part of the world.
00:14:39 SPEAKER_308: About twenty point six million barrels a day transits the Strait of Hormuz.
00:14:40 SPEAKER_308: The traffic has collapsed by ninety-two percent, larger than 1973 disruption by three to five times in magnitude.
00:14:41 SPEAKER_308: Oil tankers trapped in and outside the Persian Gulf.
00:14:41 SPEAKER_308: There are approximately thirty very large crude carriers trapped in the Persian Gulf.
00:14:42 SPEAKER_308: There are approximately ninety very large crude carriers are trapped outside the Persian Gulf due to contract law.
00:14:43 SPEAKER_308: So unless a judge declares that those contracts are null and void, they're anchored off the coast of Oman right now.
00:14:44 SPEAKER_308: Oh wow, we are in the seventh week according to the models and how shipping works.
00:14:45 SPEAKER_308: That shipping companies are saying, and that it'll take at least 42 weeks for international shipping to resume.
00:14:45 SPEAKER_308: To control that means near the end of this year.
00:14:46 SPEAKER_308: If the crisis were to end today, if the crisis extends to June 1st, it will take 18 months to resume.
00:14:47 SPEAKER_308: So you're talking about the first part of 2028, and if the crisis extends into September 1st, it will take three years to recover normal trade flows.
00:14:48 SPEAKER_308: Wow, has no ready reserves to absorb this kind of energy shock.
00:14:49 SPEAKER_308: Okay, next one.
00:14:49 SPEAKER_308: Risks.
00:14:49 SPEAKER_308: So you've got the Saudi Arabia gas pipeline to Yanbu, of course, there at Yanbu.
00:14:50 SPEAKER_308: There, the UAE's Oman pipeline system.
00:14:50 SPEAKER_308: So the Saudi Arabia's West pipeline should move seven, but right now it's only moving four.
00:14:51 SPEAKER_308: And the reason why is the limitation of the ports in the Red Sea.
00:14:52 SPEAKER_308: It's not the pipe.
00:14:52 SPEAKER_308: The UAE's Oman pipeline theory should move one point eight.
00:14:52 SPEAKER_308: It only moves one point seven.
00:14:53 SPEAKER_308: The Iraq North pipeline was destroyed, damaged, multiple drone strikes.
00:14:53 SPEAKER_308: Basically, total disruption per day: fifteen point nine million barrels a day.
00:14:54 SPEAKER_308: On April 8, 2026, the Saudi East-West pipeline was damaged by a drone and may be inoperable.
00:14:54 SPEAKER_308: I'm hearing conflicting reports about that.
00:14:55 SPEAKER_308: Oh wow!
00:14:55 SPEAKER_308: The interruption that that would, if that's true, that would take the interruption to 19 point nine million barrels per day.
00:14:56 SPEAKER_308: The damage at Karg Island and the blockade has limited Iranian oil exports.
00:14:56 SPEAKER_308: Pretty much only Chinese, very large crude carriers are still transiting.
00:14:57 SPEAKER_308: I know Donald Trump has said he's blockading it, but the United States Navy hasn't wanted to start World War III yet with the Chinese.
00:14:58 SPEAKER_308: Fair enough.
00:14:58 SPEAKER_308: That's really what's going on there.
00:14:59 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, yeah.
00:14:59 SPEAKER_308: So here's what he wants to do, and here's what the sailors are saying.
00:14:59 SPEAKER_308: You know, yeah, this may not be a good thing.
00:15:00 SPEAKER_308: Attacking China.
00:15:00 SPEAKER_308: Yeah.
00:15:00 SPEAKER_308: Fair enough.
00:15:00 SPEAKER_308: Donald, you're not there being shot at.
00:15:00 SPEAKER_308: No.
00:15:01 SPEAKER_308: So reservoir damage.
00:15:01 SPEAKER_308: We're talking about the oil fields there are currently in the process of shutting in oil fields.
00:15:01 SPEAKER_308: So the Iraq was the first ones to start shutting in oil fields, and by the end of this month, the Saudi oil fields will be shut in.
00:15:03 SPEAKER_308: Steps to restart: first, you start off with removing the sub pump.
00:15:03 SPEAKER_308: Sometimes they're down inside the ground in the sub pump.
00:15:04 SPEAKER_308: You have to have chemical treatment there.
00:15:04 SPEAKER_308: Clean out the accumulated water.
00:15:05 SPEAKER_308: Replace the pump on the top because more likely that stuff is clogged up inside that mechanism.
00:15:05 SPEAKER_308: You set mechanism, your sedimentation link clogged; that has to be cleared.
00:15:06 SPEAKER_308: And paraffin, a type of wax, collects in that system, and there might be pressure damage to the reservoir.
00:15:07 SPEAKER_308: The industry, and this is from Schlumberger, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes, they're saying it'll take up to two years before production is back to eighty percent.
00:15:08 SPEAKER_308: They're not forecasting a hundred percent recoverable back production.
00:15:09 SPEAKER_308: They're saying eighty due to reservoir damage, personnel, equipment shortage, and it's tied to aging manufacturing.
00:15:09 SPEAKER_308: Right.
00:15:09 SPEAKER_308: The Asian manufacturing right now, Asian manufacturing is shut down due to diesel shortages.
00:15:10 SPEAKER_308: That equipment is what's needed to bring these fields back online.
00:15:11 SPEAKER_308: It's they're not sure whether there's enough equipment in Houston to fill this in because the oil fields and infrastructure in this part of the world is vast.
00:15:12 SPEAKER_308: Over a million barrels a day, a refinery are damaged.
00:15:12 SPEAKER_308: Cutters LNG facility has been down.
00:15:13 SPEAKER_308: It may take three to five years to repair.
00:15:13 SPEAKER_308: It's been hit twice by drones.
00:15:13 SPEAKER_308: The UAE's gas field is currently on fire.
00:15:14 SPEAKER_308: According to satellite data I looked at this morning, it's still burning.
00:15:14 SPEAKER_308: Wow!
00:15:15 SPEAKER_308: Saudi Arabia's petrochemical park is on fire.
00:15:15 SPEAKER_308: It's about 16 square miles for plastics, chemicals, you name it, fertilizer, etc.
00:15:15 SPEAKER_308: Wow!
00:15:16 SPEAKER_308: Carg Island, South Pars, Fujairah Port, Ras's oil refinery have been damaged.
00:15:16 SPEAKER_308: Ras Tanura refinery and Samraf refinery on the coast there in the Red Sea have been damaged.
00:15:17 SPEAKER_308: Iraq has shut down as well, as we talked about that.
00:15:17 SPEAKER_308: The equipment is available at a minimum that, like said.
00:15:18 SPEAKER_308: If they had the equipment to take a minimum of two years to basically repair all the infrastructure that's currently damaged, but with Asian manufacturing offline, this damage may never be repaired.
00:15:20 SPEAKER_308: It also is interesting to note what kind of ordnance that the Iranians are using.
00:15:20 SPEAKER_308: Besides, you've heard about the drones, but what you haven't heard about are the ballistic missiles they have.
00:15:21 SPEAKER_308: It's actually a Chinese missile.
00:15:21 SPEAKER_308: The speed is.
00:15:22 SPEAKER_308: The speed is in excess of Mach five, so I'm an old air defence guy.
00:15:22 SPEAKER_308: You can't shoot down something travelling that fast, faster than Mach five.
00:15:23 SPEAKER_308: The missiles have twenty, what they call decoys, that they deploy out in front of the warhead, and then
00:15:24 SPEAKER_308: the warhead itself is a fragmenting warhead.
00:15:27 SPEAKER_308: It breaks apart into eighty bomblets, and so, and basically those bomblets spread apart in the air, so that way everything within like a mile in diameter is covered with bomblets.
00:15:40 SPEAKER_308: One of the features of cluster munitions is all the unexploded ordnance because it lands on the ground, it turns into an instant minefield.
00:15:50 SPEAKER_308: For example, one of the reasons why, for example, some of these oil refineries are still burning is because the firefighters refuse to go in there because of all the unexploded ordnance laying on the ground.
00:16:05 SPEAKER_308: Ah, I see.
00:16:06 SPEAKER_308: Okay, that makes sense.
00:16:08 SPEAKER_308: Burn out of fuel, right?
00:16:10 SPEAKER_308: And then, and then, repair this.
00:16:12 SPEAKER_308: You would have to send that EOD explosive ordnance disposal to remove all the explosive ordnance before any kind of repairs can
00:16:21 SPEAKER_308: start.
00:16:22 SPEAKER_308: That's why it's so long.
00:16:25 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, I believe Charlie has his hand up.
00:16:31 SPEAKER_308: Sure.
00:16:31 SPEAKER_308: Dan, are you saying they have to, from every production well, they have to pull the pump at the bottom up?
00:16:45 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, there's some kind of a pump that they put inside and down in the ground that they put in the pipe.
00:17:00 SPEAKER_308: So they have to pull it out from two miles down.
00:17:07 SPEAKER_308: I don't know how far they are down, Charlie.
00:17:13 SPEAKER_308: I don't know.
00:17:15 SPEAKER_308: Well, roughly two miles, and then
00:17:19 SPEAKER_308: they have to replace.
00:17:20 SPEAKER_308: They have to put on a new pump.
00:17:22 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, that's the old pump is no good.
00:17:24 SPEAKER_308: That's what Schlumberger is saying.
00:17:25 SPEAKER_308: Yes, for thousands of wells.
00:17:26 SPEAKER_308: Yes, that's to get us back to production because these were stopped.
00:17:29 SPEAKER_308: And on top of that, Charlie, they don't know till they go in whether those pumps are working or not.
00:17:34 SPEAKER_308: So they're just basically making a list here of all the things.
00:17:37 SPEAKER_308: They can't just flip a switch and see if it works.
00:17:40 SPEAKER_308: No, remember these.
00:17:40 SPEAKER_308: A lot of these fields were discovered back in the 30s and 40s.
00:17:43 SPEAKER_308: You know, I mean, it's not like it's not like oil shooting up out of the ground like a geyser.
00:17:48 SPEAKER_308: This is stuff they've got to, you know, actually suck out of the ground.
00:17:51 SPEAKER_308: No, I understand that, but but I mean, they have grasshoppers at the top and some pumps at the bottom.
00:17:56 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, it's what they're saying.
00:17:57 SPEAKER_308: All right, Dan.
00:17:58 SPEAKER_308: I was wondering if we could try to finish this presentation in the ten minutes.
00:18:02 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, let me get you.
00:18:03 SPEAKER_308: May get the next one here.
00:18:04 SPEAKER_308: So I've got here so strategic petroleum reserve, United States is four hundred eleven million barrels, one hundred twenty-five days worth of supply.
00:18:10 SPEAKER_308: You got Japan at three hundred fifty million barrels, same day of supply.
00:18:13 SPEAKER_308: International Energy Agency have one time amongst all their members, four hundred million barrels that they can
00:18:17 SPEAKER_308: place out there to be used by their members.
00:18:23 SPEAKER_308: China has been misanalyzed in this respect when it comes to their reserves.
00:18:32 SPEAKER_308: And the reason why is because the first thing China did is they shut down their well.
00:18:43 SPEAKER_308: China consumes about 16 million barrels per day.
00:18:49 SPEAKER_308: They shut down their exports of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, and phosphate production, right?
00:18:59 SPEAKER_308: And that reduced their consumption down to 13 or 14 million barrels a day.
00:19:09 SPEAKER_308: China produces 4 million barrels a day, and then
00:19:15 SPEAKER_308: through the Trans-Siberia pipeline, Siberia pipeline, Kamchatka, and the Sakhalin oil fields.
00:19:19 SPEAKER_308: They get another six million barrels out of Russia, and you throw in Kazakhstan, that's another four million barrels.
00:19:25 SPEAKER_308: So China's got access to fourteen million.
00:19:27 SPEAKER_308: So they won't have to use their reserves in this process.
00:19:31 SPEAKER_308: Oh wow, that's cool.
00:19:32 SPEAKER_308: So everybody's misanalyzed China.
00:19:33 SPEAKER_308: So metabolic collapse of byproducts.
00:19:35 SPEAKER_308: You got here.
00:19:36 SPEAKER_308: Byproducts.
00:19:36 SPEAKER_308: So you've got here helium source, which is one of the byproducts of Cutters LNG out of the South Pars field.
00:19:43 SPEAKER_308: As you pump it up, you compress it up to nine hundred psi, and that turns the methane and ethane into a liquid.
00:19:51 SPEAKER_308: The helium basically comes out of that.
00:19:53 SPEAKER_308: So that's cooling applications.
00:19:54 SPEAKER_308: About thirty-three percent of the world supply for cooling applications like data centres, EUV lithographic for semiconductor manufacturing.
00:20:00 SPEAKER_308: That's out of ninety percent of semiconductors coming out of Taiwan, silicon crystal growth, and of course, NASA and MRI medical machines use helium for coolant.
00:20:09 SPEAKER_308: Sulfur over forty-five percent of the world's trade is gone, and then
00:20:12 SPEAKER_308: you need that for EV battery processing.
00:20:20 SPEAKER_308: So this is going to impact lithium ion battery production, and of course, phosphate fertilizer.
00:20:37 SPEAKER_308: They extract it from that heavy crude that they have.
00:20:49 SPEAKER_308: They extract the sulfur out with hydrogen, make hydrosulfide.
00:20:59 SPEAKER_308: They burn that to turn that into sulfur dioxide, then
00:21:10 SPEAKER_308: sulfuric acid.
00:21:10 SPEAKER_308: That's all.
00:21:11 SPEAKER_308: Acid, that's also used for copper production.
00:21:11 SPEAKER_308: So that's gonna, it's got a compound on top of copper.
00:21:12 SPEAKER_308: All right, yeah.
00:21:12 SPEAKER_308: Nitrogen fertilizer, that's urea, anhydrous ammonia.
00:21:12 SPEAKER_308: Third World trade.
00:21:13 SPEAKER_308: We're already in that area where we don't get these fertilizers out to the crops.
00:21:14 SPEAKER_308: That's gonna impact crop production.
00:21:14 SPEAKER_308: Forty days from now, that'll be critical.
00:21:14 SPEAKER_308: Aluminum and of course the aerospace, automotive, and plastic.
00:21:15 SPEAKER_308: What that is is they have a number of aluminum processing facilities there in the Middle East, since they had inexpensive energy, electricity.
00:21:17 SPEAKER_308: If you know about anything about aluminum electrolysis, once you kill the power to the cells, which what's happened, the aluminum solidifies inside the cell.
00:21:18 SPEAKER_308: So the only way to bring that back online is you have to use jackhammer, remove the building, and scratch.
00:21:20 SPEAKER_308: So aluminum production in the Middle East is offline, probably the next two three years at best.
00:21:21 SPEAKER_308: Wow.
00:21:21 SPEAKER_308: Then you've got what's going on with the global South as of April 2026.
00:21:22 SPEAKER_308: Power plant usage is down at 23.
00:21:22 SPEAKER_308: We're talking about India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, etc., because they use gas turbines to produce electricity.
00:21:24 SPEAKER_308: Garment sector is down by 70, so that's going to impact clothing.
00:21:24 SPEAKER_308: Diesel and storage is down by 70.
00:21:25 SPEAKER_308: A lot of these places because the power grids are not stable, they use a lot of diesel generators for supplementary power.
00:21:26 SPEAKER_308: Liquid natural gas imports are suspended because of what's going on with Qatar.
00:21:27 SPEAKER_308: By the way, that LNG facility was hit twice by two drones.
00:21:28 SPEAKER_308: I've already said that.
00:21:28 SPEAKER_308: Yeah.
00:21:28 SPEAKER_308: So one dress, obviously.
00:21:29 SPEAKER_308: I've been talking to my some of my friends over in India.
00:21:29 SPEAKER_308: It's chaos in India right now.
00:21:30 SPEAKER_308: Is an industrial collapse due to the diesel shortage in Asia.
00:21:31 SPEAKER_308: So, wow.
00:21:31 SPEAKER_308: The military guarding what supplies they have.
00:21:31 SPEAKER_308: The only country that doesn't seem to be having a lot of these issues is because of China.
00:21:32 SPEAKER_308: China's been preparing for this for a while.
00:21:33 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, yeah.
00:21:33 SPEAKER_308: This is a risk world GDP.
00:21:34 SPEAKER_308: It's no, it's not a short loss.
00:21:34 SPEAKER_308: This is from the, this is, this is from the IMF is where this is from.
00:21:35 SPEAKER_308: We're already in the meeting effects because we're in the seventh week, right?
00:21:36 SPEAKER_308: And like I said, that this goes into three to six weeks, and I've already talked about how long it would take just shipping to resume back normally.
00:21:38 SPEAKER_308: You're talking about a worldwide depression.
00:21:38 SPEAKER_308: So if this gets into June, July, August.
00:21:39 SPEAKER_308: To June, July, August, expect those kind of economic.
00:21:39 SPEAKER_308: Next one is fossil fuel addiction.
00:21:40 SPEAKER_308: Nations most exposed are those nations without renewables.
00:21:40 SPEAKER_308: I think that's ironic myself.
00:21:41 SPEAKER_308: Economics of or stagflation, and remember, this isn't this isn't an inflationary event.
00:21:42 SPEAKER_308: This is a deflationary event because it it it's added resistance, and you it's not just a simple.
00:21:43 SPEAKER_308: And saying you want—it's not just a simply a simple problem of not have high-priced fuels.
00:21:44 SPEAKER_308: It's a problem of not being able to get fuels.
00:21:45 SPEAKER_308: A good example: there's a jet fuel shortage that's spreading around the world as we speak.
00:21:46 SPEAKER_308: The plastics industry's start of feedstock—they're missing over seven million metric tons of ethylene, and that came out of Qatar.
00:21:47 SPEAKER_308: The ripple it'll ripple for two to five years.
00:21:48 SPEAKER_308: Phase one will be the hormonal shock.
00:21:48 SPEAKER_308: Iran has become a world energy risk.
00:21:49 SPEAKER_308: No matter what, that has become a risk.
00:21:49 SPEAKER_308: Contract law and insurance.
00:21:50 SPEAKER_308: Phase two, from 2027 to 2028, refining capacity moved from the Middle East to other places because of risk.
00:21:51 SPEAKER_308: North America, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana considered safe as energy source.
00:21:52 SPEAKER_308: Iran has become a permanent security risk.
00:21:52 SPEAKER_308: Phase three from 2029 to 2030 rise of electric transportation in Japan and the European Union, and it'll be because of that's a necessity.
00:21:54 SPEAKER_308: It's not a choice.
00:21:54 SPEAKER_308: It's something they'll be forced on.
00:21:54 SPEAKER_308: China still be the centre of the manufacturing chain.
00:21:55 SPEAKER_308: That's not going to change.
00:21:55 SPEAKER_308: And adjusting time manufacturing.
00:21:56 SPEAKER_308: This is going to shut down global transportation.
00:21:56 SPEAKER_308: You know, replace with just.
00:21:56 SPEAKER_308: Replaced with just in case manufacturing corporate costs will rise, so that'll be very difficult for a lot of multinational corporations continue to invest.
00:21:58 SPEAKER_308: Now, summary: so permanent Hormuz risk premium, costs embedded into worldwide manufacturing, permanent rise in prices worldwide.
00:21:59 SPEAKER_308: Western Hemisphere safe.
00:21:59 SPEAKER_308: This the western part of the Americas will be considered a safe part of the world when it comes to sourcing energy.
00:22:01 SPEAKER_308: Past of Venezuela is unknown.
00:22:01 SPEAKER_308: Do a lot of definitions there.
00:22:02 SPEAKER_308: New investments, new investments will be made in the other part of the world at the expense of the Persian Gulf state.
00:22:03 SPEAKER_308: World food shortages caused by fertilizer shortage.
00:22:04 SPEAKER_308: World crop yields reduced from 2027 to 2028.
00:22:04 SPEAKER_308: We'll see that in effect as the stores of food basically fall.
00:22:05 SPEAKER_308: Political issue for decades.
00:22:05 SPEAKER_308: Starvation.
00:22:05 SPEAKER_308: We're going to see starvation, mass starvation.
00:22:06 SPEAKER_308: Straits not open by July 2026.
00:22:06 SPEAKER_308: Persian Gulf countries will become legacy assets when it comes to the large corporations.
00:22:07 SPEAKER_308: I threw this chart in here just to so everybody can
00:22:08 SPEAKER_308: be apples and apples and oranges when it talks.
00:22:13 SPEAKER_308: You're talking about energy sources.
00:22:16 SPEAKER_308: I've got the batteries in here all the way down to the different fuels.
00:22:23 SPEAKER_308: Batteries are rated in watt hours per kilogram.
00:22:27 SPEAKER_308: Fuels are rated BTUs per pound.
00:22:30 SPEAKER_308: Joules per pound.
00:22:32 SPEAKER_308: Everything's been converted to joules per kilogram.
00:22:36 SPEAKER_308: Oh great!
00:22:37 SPEAKER_308: Think we talked about the sodium ion battery.
00:22:41 SPEAKER_308: That's 1,368,000 joules per kilogram.
00:22:44 SPEAKER_308: And if you were going to improve the batteries to be equal to gasoline, you'd have to improve your battery technology by 42 times.
00:22:57 SPEAKER_308: And to catch up to hydrogen, you have to improve it by 120 times.
00:23:04 SPEAKER_308: And we can
00:23:06 SPEAKER_308: pause that on the video too.
00:23:09 SPEAKER_308: And so that's what I.
00:23:12 SPEAKER_308: All right, thank you so much.
00:23:16 SPEAKER_308: The tank you see—that's a Type Seven tank.
00:23:20 SPEAKER_308: It holds fifty-six kilograms of hydrogen at two hundred bar.
00:23:26 SPEAKER_308: Total weight.
00:23:27 SPEAKER_308: That's watt hours, not kilowatt hours.
00:23:30 SPEAKER_308: Oh, you talk about?
00:23:33 SPEAKER_308: Oh, when your graph per kilogram watt hours per kilogram watt hours—that's nothing.
00:23:40 SPEAKER_308: Batteries are rated in watt hours per kilogram.
00:23:45 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, but yeah, you could see here the joules per kilogram.
00:23:51 SPEAKER_308: It's better for comparing because it's all in the same.
00:23:57 SPEAKER_308: You're going to apples to apples, oranges to oranges.
00:24:02 SPEAKER_308: So you do
00:24:04 SPEAKER_308: battery electric vehicles that they have to have an app because the industry makes it very, very confusing.
00:24:35 SPEAKER_308: Like the fuel guys that have BTUs per pound, that old British system, and then
00:25:01 SPEAKER_308: the guys that work on batteries, batteries rated in watt hours per kilogram, and if you convert those to joules, joules per yeah, then
00:25:59 SPEAKER_308: it makes much more sense.
00:26:04 SPEAKER_308: So anyway, like I said, that's the lab that we've got currently in the lab, and right now we're theorizing that you could drive a Toyota Hilux hybrid electric vehicle for 4,000 miles on a single fill.
00:26:44 SPEAKER_308: How big is this?
00:26:48 SPEAKER_308: It's hard to tell the scale.
00:26:55 SPEAKER_308: You can
00:26:57 SPEAKER_308: fit in the bed of the pickup truck.
00:27:06 SPEAKER_308: Okay, okay.
00:27:08 SPEAKER_308: How many miles did you say?
00:27:15 SPEAKER_308: Four over 4,000.
00:27:18 SPEAKER_308: 4,000 miles.
00:27:20 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, on a single.
00:27:25 SPEAKER_308: Thousand miles.
00:27:27 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, I'm a single fellow.
00:27:32 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, anyways.
00:27:35 SPEAKER_308: All right, and I wanted to say hi to Simon Michaud, who's joined us.
00:27:50 SPEAKER_308: Simon, are you there?
00:27:55 SPEAKER_308: Can you hear me?
00:27:56 SPEAKER_308: Yes.
00:27:57 SPEAKER_308: Yeah.
00:27:57 SPEAKER_308: Hello, guys.
00:27:58 SPEAKER_308: I've also got something prepared.
00:28:01 SPEAKER_308: Oh, excellent work!
00:28:02 SPEAKER_308: As it turns out, we've done slightly different things.
00:28:06 SPEAKER_308: I'm good.
00:28:07 SPEAKER_308: We did in different ways, Simon.
00:28:10 SPEAKER_308: So the numbers I've got, some of the numbers actually come up against your numbers.
00:28:17 SPEAKER_308: The people I spoke to are banking actuaries.
00:28:21 SPEAKER_381: You're actually a bit deep in the energy industry itself.
00:28:25 SPEAKER_381: So when we, when I present a number that's a little different to yours, I want everyone to go with Dan's number.
00:28:36 SPEAKER_381: Just saying.
00:28:37 SPEAKER_381: Yeah.
00:28:37 SPEAKER_381: Right.
00:28:37 SPEAKER_381: Shall I go?
00:28:39 SPEAKER_381: Oh, hold on.
00:28:40 SPEAKER_381: I just I wanted to say hi to you, and then, but we still have a few questions.
00:28:49 SPEAKER_381: Oh, yeah.
00:28:50 SPEAKER_381: Sorry for Dan, and and then
00:28:52 SPEAKER_307: and then.
00:28:54 SPEAKER_307: We'll get to it.
00:28:56 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
00:28:57 SPEAKER_307: So I know Barbara and Wenchless had some questions, and I also have some.
00:29:07 SPEAKER_307: I just want to make a statement, so everybody about my presentation.
00:29:15 SPEAKER_307: Understand, ladies and gentlemen, this is the best guess we have right now.
00:29:24 SPEAKER_307: This is what the banks, the insurance companies, and the oil and gas companies are saying.
00:29:35 SPEAKER_307: This is what we think is happening.
00:29:40 SPEAKER_307: Does that mean that's exactly how this is going to play out?
00:29:48 SPEAKER_307: No.
00:29:49 SPEAKER_307: Nobody can
00:29:50 SPEAKER_307: say that.
00:29:54 SPEAKER_307: We're just guessing.
00:30:00 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
00:30:02 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
00:30:04 SPEAKER_307: Very good.
00:30:08 SPEAKER_307: Okay, so I see in the chat.
00:30:22 SPEAKER_307: Okay, who who wants to?
00:30:32 SPEAKER_307: Okay, Roger, go ahead, Roger.
00:30:42 SPEAKER_307: Can you unmute?
00:30:48 SPEAKER_307: Um, Andre, sorry, it says my microphone does not have permission.
00:31:37 SPEAKER_307: I do
00:31:46 SPEAKER_307: not know how to fix it.
00:31:54 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
00:31:56 SPEAKER_382: You could type it in the chat, I guess, if you have a question.
00:32:16 SPEAKER_382: But basically, you'd have to go into the settings and figure that out.
00:32:35 SPEAKER_307: But we we'd have to do
00:32:43 SPEAKER_307: that another time.
00:32:45 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
00:32:46 SPEAKER_384: So Wenchlos, did you want to unmute and ask a question?
00:32:53 SPEAKER_384: Because you're typing a lot in the chat, but I I can't say for you.
00:33:02 SPEAKER_384: Okay.
00:33:03 SPEAKER_384: Yes, Roger.
00:33:04 SPEAKER_384: Okay.
00:33:05 SPEAKER_384: Raj, okay, so okay.
00:33:07 SPEAKER_384: Barbara Brown, okay, go ahead, Barbara.
00:33:11 SPEAKER_384: You ask.
00:33:12 SPEAKER_384: Um, you know, looking at the fertilizer problem, so we've seen a couple of folks around here.
00:33:23 SPEAKER_384: Based on the last fertilizer shortage a couple of years ago, they have large cattle facilities.
00:33:32 SPEAKER_384: You know the capos, and instead of trying to figure out what to do
00:33:41 SPEAKER_384: with their manure, they're sludging it, and they now have huge distribution systems putting that on the field because there's no longer fences to just put turn the cattle out and let them naturally fertilize.
00:34:01 SPEAKER_307: So there are fixes for that.
00:34:04 SPEAKER_307: It's taken them a couple of years to fix it.
00:34:10 SPEAKER_307: The problem with the fences is probably the most severe because otherwise you could simply turn the capos into the fields and let them provide enough fertilizer to plant, but not when you've taken down all of all of the fences.
00:34:33 SPEAKER_307: But it's fixable if you think out of the box.
00:34:39 SPEAKER_307: Organic fertilizers are a great option, Barbara.
00:34:42 SPEAKER_307: That's a great option, and not one that the big business folks like, right?
00:34:49 SPEAKER_307: That all depends on the soil, depending on what you're missing in the soil whether you need phosphate or potassium or nitrogen.
00:34:59 SPEAKER_307: But it is a great option to add more.
00:35:03 SPEAKER_307: Well, and depending on what you're feeding the cattle as well.
00:35:08 SPEAKER_307: If you're feeding them locally, sometimes that's a problem because they're getting stuff that's depleted.
00:35:15 SPEAKER_307: Where we're just trucking in food for them, probably less of a problem than it would have been 40 years ago when you know they ate the local grass.
00:35:29 SPEAKER_307: So if they fertilized the local grass and there was a depletion, it would continue forever, right?
00:35:37 SPEAKER_307: Let's.
00:35:38 SPEAKER_307: Charlie has his hand up.
00:35:42 SPEAKER_307: We just have a few minutes.
00:35:48 SPEAKER_307: Charlie, go ahead.
00:35:51 SPEAKER_307: Well, I'd like to tell you about a problem I analysed.
00:36:02 SPEAKER_307: It was 20 years ago, but it's very important that Iowa used to produce our bacon.
00:36:17 SPEAKER_307: We grew the corn in Iowa, fed it to the pigs, and there was our bacon.
00:36:33 SPEAKER_307: And then
00:36:34 SPEAKER_307: North Carolina decided they wanted to make money and passed various laws to make it much easier to raise pigs in North Carolina, and so we shipped corn from Iowa to North Carolina, fed it to the pigs, and then
00:37:32 SPEAKER_382: put the pig manure into slurry ponds, and it never got back onto the fields.
00:37:54 SPEAKER_382: And we've done that with cows too.
00:38:04 SPEAKER_383: Anybody driving Route 5 in California knows that.
00:38:16 SPEAKER_383: So yes, Barbara, that's a great idea.
00:38:26 SPEAKER_383: Except we do
00:38:30 SPEAKER_308: not have the means of getting the manure back to the farms, which are often thousands of miles away and very expensive to move the manure there.
00:38:54 SPEAKER_308: Great idea.
00:38:56 SPEAKER_308: Too late.
00:38:58 SPEAKER_308: Yeah.
00:38:59 SPEAKER_308: I also have a commenter in the YouTube that says farmers have been having problems with contaminated sludge, making their fields unusable for the foreseeable future.
00:39:22 SPEAKER_308: Okay, Iver.
00:39:24 SPEAKER_308: Iver Wenschlos, and then
00:39:28 SPEAKER_308: we'll get to Simon.
00:39:29 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:39:29 SPEAKER_308: I have a.
00:39:30 SPEAKER_308: Yep, Simon.
00:39:30 SPEAKER_308: Okay.
00:39:30 SPEAKER_308: I have a friend who has four cows, and I told him that his manure pile just turned into liquid, you know, mushy gold, really, you know.
00:39:37 SPEAKER_308: So you never know what was basically shit.
00:39:39 SPEAKER_308: All of a sudden, has turned into gold.
00:39:41 SPEAKER_308: As long as he's feeding him, he feeds him really great stuff.
00:39:44 SPEAKER_308: Okay, Wenschlos.
00:39:45 SPEAKER_308: Go ahead.
00:39:45 SPEAKER_308: Well, thank you, Andrew.
00:39:46 SPEAKER_308: It's a pleasure to be part of you today.
00:39:48 SPEAKER_308: Kind of the newbie in the crowd.
00:39:50 SPEAKER_308: I'm just wondering.
00:39:51 SPEAKER_308: I have two questions for Dan.
00:39:52 SPEAKER_308: First, what did you mean by different just-in-time manufacturing versus just-in-case?
00:39:55 SPEAKER_308: Because in my humble opinion, since the economy works in excess capacity, though not when it comes to energy production, and especially in our present times, it's more or less like usually, well, always just-in-time manufacturing that we are delivering.
00:40:05 SPEAKER_307: And my second question is regarding like the shift to electricity that you mentioned, especially all the investments, either in Canada or North America in general, or probably in the Nordic countries in Europe.
00:40:13 SPEAKER_307: I'm wondering.
00:40:14 SPEAKER_307: It's not really like a shift.
00:40:15 SPEAKER_307: I mean, electricity is more generally like a secondary energy source produced from fossil fuels, like coal.
00:40:20 SPEAKER_307: And if you take China, for example, they extract and produce and process a lot of coal to generate some electric supply.
00:40:25 SPEAKER_307: So, can
00:40:25 SPEAKER_307: we expect coal to rise?
00:40:27 SPEAKER_307: And I mean, trying to compensate for the shortage and the lack of oil in the coming weeks, months, and maybe years.
00:40:34 SPEAKER_307: I don't know.
00:40:35 SPEAKER_307: What's your opinion on?
00:40:36 SPEAKER_381: Well, well, I guess it depends, and depends on where you're at when it comes to coal.
00:40:42 SPEAKER_381: And I know I gave a presentation last time in this show.
00:40:45 SPEAKER_381: We talked about coal.
00:40:47 SPEAKER_381: That's something I know a lot about.
00:40:49 SPEAKER_381: Is coal for power plants?
00:40:51 SPEAKER_381: But they say what you're saying.
00:40:52 SPEAKER_381: Say what your first question was before.
00:40:55 SPEAKER_381: Would you say that again, please?
00:40:57 SPEAKER_381: Well, I was wondering if we're always probably like producing just-in-case, like probably like the manufacturing goes the baseline.
00:41:03 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, the baseline.
00:41:04 SPEAKER_381: These yeah, the easiest way to explain that explains basically explains like the modern car manufacturing industry how they actually work.
00:41:10 SPEAKER_381: And the old days, for example, like Japan, which shipped cars to the United States, and the amount of rate of damage of those cars was pretty high, so they stopped doing just shipping whole cars.
00:41:22 SPEAKER_381: What all the companies do
00:41:23 SPEAKER_381: now is they ship components and parts.
00:41:43 SPEAKER_381: So all these components and parts are manufactured all over the planet, and then
00:42:21 SPEAKER_381: they're actually like for example, automobiles are manufactured here in North America and Canada and in Europe and other countries.
00:42:27 SPEAKER_381: For example, we've got BMW and Mercedes-Benz have manufacturing plants here in the United States.
00:42:32 SPEAKER_381: We don't actually ship you know Mercedes-Benzes or BMWs from Germany to the United States.
00:42:37 SPEAKER_381: Assembly plants.
00:42:38 SPEAKER_381: It goes back to that assembly thing, and with the worldwide, with that globalized shipping, that but that was based on inexpensive, cheap energy for shipping, and that's that what that's the code word for that is the supply chains are breaking down.
00:42:52 SPEAKER_307: That's been going on since 2020.
00:42:53 SPEAKER_307: That's that's that's why they're saying that.
00:42:56 SPEAKER_307: Yeah.
00:42:56 SPEAKER_307: So the country, the companies will have to warehouse and store more components and parts locally because they won't be able to depend on that globalized system for receiving components.
00:43:06 SPEAKER_307: And just a comment on the coal.
00:43:08 SPEAKER_307: So, as a response to the '70s oil embargoes, Texas Utilities had a big programme to.
00:43:13 SPEAKER_307: I think Barbara.
00:43:14 SPEAKER_307: Yeah, okay.
00:43:15 SPEAKER_307: Did that answer the bigger question about coal?
00:43:17 SPEAKER_307: The easiest way I can
00:43:19 SPEAKER_381: describe it is like what happened here in America is that great coal, like the great anthracite we used to get out of Pennsylvania, that's been mined out and burnt.
00:43:28 SPEAKER_381: Right, and only lignite is left.
00:43:30 SPEAKER_381: It's been, it's been proven actually a lot of it has been mapped and proven.
00:43:35 SPEAKER_381: It just wasn't economic in the '80s after the first couple of plants went in, but there's quite a bit there, and I don't know what the current ROI would be because the machines that Barbara and you actually read.
00:43:48 SPEAKER_381: I know, I know companies right now they're trying to get investments in coal-to-liquids technology.
00:43:52 SPEAKER_381: But, but the thing is, just trying to make it work.
00:43:56 SPEAKER_381: Probably the biggest company in the world that was doing that was Sasol, South African synthetic oil.
00:44:01 SPEAKER_381: Right.
00:44:02 SPEAKER_381: And for example, the facility, the gas liquids facility, I have down in Louisiana, that's being shut down right now.
00:44:08 SPEAKER_381: It's just because it's just not economical.
00:44:10 SPEAKER_381: But China's going to go through that same curve.
00:44:13 SPEAKER_381: I mean, they'll burn their coal as long as they can
00:44:17 SPEAKER_381: until they get down to the lignite.
00:44:24 SPEAKER_381: And the amount of overhead that it costs to process and handle the waste, and also just the mining of material that two-thirds of it's not carbon, right?
00:44:55 SPEAKER_381: And just the economics just work against you.
00:45:04 SPEAKER_381: We'll do that.
00:45:08 SPEAKER_307: We'll all do that.
00:45:12 SPEAKER_307: We'll do
00:45:14 SPEAKER_381: that here in America as long as we can
00:46:12 SPEAKER_381: until the economics, you know, doesn't benefit.
00:46:37 SPEAKER_381: You know, does it require more energy to do
00:47:10 SPEAKER_381: this than what we're actually getting out of it?
00:47:24 SPEAKER_381: And yet.
00:47:27 SPEAKER_381: What we're actually getting out of it, and you got the same thing with oil.
00:47:50 SPEAKER_381: There's plenty of oil out there.
00:48:00 SPEAKER_381: The question is, what do
00:48:08 SPEAKER_381: you what are you willing to put into it until it's just not economical?
00:48:10 SPEAKER_381: Okay, here we're going to move on to Simon, but my kind of summary of the just-in-case is that we're relocalizing our economies.
00:48:13 SPEAKER_381: We have to bring things closer and manufacture more of our things, kind of on the continent and things like that.
00:48:16 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, distance will dictate you know the close.
00:48:17 SPEAKER_381: Distance will dictate.
00:48:17 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, the closer it is, the less it will cost.
00:48:19 SPEAKER_381: Yeah.
00:48:19 SPEAKER_381: That the world is getting bigger, in you know, in that sense, because it's getting more expensive to transport higher, farther.
00:48:22 SPEAKER_381: Okay, Simon, we're ready for you.
00:48:23 SPEAKER_381: Yeah.
00:48:23 SPEAKER_381: Hi guys.
00:48:23 SPEAKER_381: Um, lots happening.
00:48:23 SPEAKER_307: Uh, for me, everyone's after a piece of my hide these days.
00:48:25 SPEAKER_307: Um, yeah.
00:48:25 SPEAKER_307: Right.
00:48:25 SPEAKER_307: So, um, I actually put together a series of analysis asking the basic question.
00:48:27 SPEAKER_307: Just asking the basic question of what the hell is happening in the Middle East.
00:48:29 SPEAKER_307: I've got two things to present today.
00:48:30 SPEAKER_307: One is Strait of Hormuz.
00:48:31 SPEAKER_307: What is offline now?
00:48:32 SPEAKER_307: What if like like how much is what's offline?
00:48:33 SPEAKER_381: Also, if the shooting stopped now, and the Strait opens now, how long would it take to recover?
00:48:35 SPEAKER_381: I've been talking to some bank actuaries, right, and so they make all sorts of dodgy.
00:48:38 SPEAKER_381: So I'm happier with Dan's numbers to be honest.
00:48:39 SPEAKER_381: But there's also asked the question if the Strait stayed closed to July first, you know, what's the net situation after that?
00:48:42 SPEAKER_381: Now then, someone actually asked me and says, "What the hell's going on here?" And I've got two basic models.
00:48:45 SPEAKER_381: It's one or two things, but they lead to the same place.
00:48:47 SPEAKER_381: And where's their final?
00:48:47 SPEAKER_381: Right, so.
00:48:47 SPEAKER_381: I was actually talking to quite a few people.
00:48:49 SPEAKER_381: I did a podcast on Capitalism a couple of days ago, and I mentioned that that that I tapped into some analysis that the same bank actuary group I'm sort of talking to are actually sort of looking at.
00:48:54 SPEAKER_381: This is a multi-dimensional conflict that's happening at the moment, and what's being forced is the renegotiation of every single commodity in a way where force majeure is being.
00:48:58 SPEAKER_381: Way where forced mergers being discussed and contracts are being broken, and there are winners and losers as the ground is shifting.
00:49:01 SPEAKER_381: And what I was saying, there's a number of companies that are being pinned that normally win these things.
00:49:04 SPEAKER_381: Right, and so I mentioned BP.
00:49:05 SPEAKER_381: That's not nothing to do
00:49:05 SPEAKER_381: with Iran, but they're right at the crosshairs of what's going down at the moment.
00:49:34 SPEAKER_381: It's not.
00:49:38 SPEAKER_381: It's not BP.
00:49:44 SPEAKER_381: It's essentially who owns BP.
00:49:53 SPEAKER_381: Anyway, so if I can
00:50:03 SPEAKER_381: just.
00:50:06 SPEAKER_381: Yeah.
00:50:09 SPEAKER_381: what I've got.
00:50:17 SPEAKER_381: And I was thinking, Simon, that since you agree with the timeline information, maybe we can
00:51:01 SPEAKER_381: like zoom in on the models, the kind of the new information.
00:51:03 SPEAKER_381: I've got new.
00:51:04 SPEAKER_381: I've got information in addition to what Dan presented.
00:51:05 SPEAKER_381: Oh, okay, good.
00:51:06 SPEAKER_381: All right, okay, good.
00:51:06 SPEAKER_381: Just, just so we're not covering the same ground in the same meeting.
00:51:09 SPEAKER_381: Okay, cool.
00:51:09 SPEAKER_381: So, where are we?
00:51:10 SPEAKER_381: Okay, shares.
00:51:10 SPEAKER_381: Okay, so this has been pulled together.
00:51:11 SPEAKER_381: Okay, we're just.
00:51:12 SPEAKER_381: Yes, good.
00:51:12 SPEAKER_381: It's full screen.
00:51:13 SPEAKER_381: Rock and roll.
00:51:13 SPEAKER_381: Okay.
00:51:13 SPEAKER_381: So, okay, you've seen this before.
00:51:15 SPEAKER_381: This is what I presented to the group.
00:51:16 SPEAKER_381: Eighty percent of stored fossil fuels.
00:51:17 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, we know all this.
00:51:18 SPEAKER_381: This is what I presented this for laughs.
00:51:19 SPEAKER_381: Between 2010 and 2024, the expansion of the fossil fuels, oil, gas, and coal, happens to be about twice what the entire renewables sector is at the moment.
00:51:24 SPEAKER_381: So we haven't actually phased anything out yet.
00:51:26 SPEAKER_381: So, okay, oil is a massive resource.
00:51:27 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, you've seen this.
00:51:28 SPEAKER_381: Master resource.
00:51:28 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, you've seen this before.
00:51:29 SPEAKER_308: Thank you, Art.
00:51:29 SPEAKER_308: This is the plan.
00:51:30 SPEAKER_308: This is this was this is the old plan.
00:51:32 SPEAKER_308: Okay, here we are.
00:51:32 SPEAKER_308: So straight to Formos.
00:51:33 SPEAKER_308: Now you know all this stuff already, so I'll step past that.
00:51:35 SPEAKER_308: Okay, with uncharted territory, what I've done here, and this is different to what Dan did, is I've put together a series of historical events that have actually taken oil offline to show that we are uncharted territory.
00:51:42 SPEAKER_381: World War Two, four point six percent of oil went offline.
00:51:44 SPEAKER_381: 1973, the oil embargo—you know, everyone lost their marbles.
00:51:46 SPEAKER_381: Five percent went offline.
00:51:46 SPEAKER_381: COVID 19—you know, the great big, you know, the pandemic lockdowns.
00:51:48 SPEAKER_381: This time it was demand reduction, nine point three percent.
00:51:50 SPEAKER_381: So the Ukraine war—that's two and three percent.
00:51:51 SPEAKER_381: But now, war moves is around twenty percent.
00:51:53 SPEAKER_381: It's and since then, our leading stuff through.
00:51:54 SPEAKER_381: Since they're now letting stuff through the Strait of Hormuz, that's now dropped to seventeen percent.
00:51:57 SPEAKER_381: But we're still in uncharted territory.
00:51:58 SPEAKER_381: Okay, I can
00:51:59 SPEAKER_381: copy these slides if we sort of can
00:52:56 SPEAKER_381: step through this fast.
00:53:02 SPEAKER_381: Okay.
00:53:04 SPEAKER_381: So it's not just oil that's offline at the moment.
00:53:18 SPEAKER_381: So you got oil, LNG, fertilizers, sulfur, methanol, aluminium, plastics, aviation cargo, helium, petroleum coke is something I hadn't actually considered till it came up.
00:53:54 SPEAKER_381: I like the numbers, Sagan.
00:53:56 SPEAKER_381: I like that you have the numbers.
00:53:58 SPEAKER_381: Yeah.
00:53:59 SPEAKER_381: So yeah.
00:53:59 SPEAKER_381: Now you have to remember, a reduction of three to five percent is enough to trigger a panic.
00:54:06 SPEAKER_381: You know, where they start, yeah, start talking about price hikes and speculation, and and and everyone loses their marbles, and and and so we're well past that.
00:54:16 SPEAKER_381: I see.
00:54:16 SPEAKER_381: Right.
00:54:17 SPEAKER_381: So if the shooting stops tomorrow, or today, now, what disruptions happening at the moment?
00:54:22 SPEAKER_381: What's the shortage, and what would be the recovery back to normal in terms of time?
00:54:28 SPEAKER_381: And what's been blown up, and what would take to recover?
00:54:31 SPEAKER_381: Now, anything oil and gas and energy, Anne's analysis will be more sophisticated than this.
00:54:37 SPEAKER_381: But this this gives a good.
00:54:39 SPEAKER_381: a good overview.
00:54:40 SPEAKER_381: So disruptions are felt across the the top columns.
00:54:43 SPEAKER_381: Things like petroleum, coke, food prices, and semiconductors—they still got their disruption a couple of weeks out, right?
00:54:49 SPEAKER_381: And so we've this this.
00:54:51 SPEAKER_381: When do
00:54:52 SPEAKER_381: we see a shortage?
00:55:25 SPEAKER_381: When when do
00:55:50 SPEAKER_381: we see the?
00:55:52 SPEAKER_381: What I'm most concerned about is fertilizers.
00:55:58 SPEAKER_381: Remembering only three to five percent disruptions enough.
00:56:05 SPEAKER_381: for everyone to lose their lose their mind.
00:56:12 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, planting season.
00:56:14 SPEAKER_381: You you've got like, is it twenty percent of fertilizers offline at the moment?
00:56:26 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, planting season for the northern hemisphere happening now.
00:56:34 SPEAKER_381: Yeah.
00:56:35 SPEAKER_381: So, what what are we got in storage, and what can we use, and can
00:56:47 SPEAKER_381: we get through this planting season, or do
00:57:45 SPEAKER_381: we need just in time supply?
00:57:49 SPEAKER_381: And I can't get a straight answer for that.
00:57:55 SPEAKER_381: So anyway, all right.
00:57:58 SPEAKER_381: So that's if we all sort of came to a consensus.
00:58:05 SPEAKER_381: This is what we're doing, right?
00:58:09 SPEAKER_381: What would happen?
00:58:11 SPEAKER_381: This is the actuary software that produced all this.
00:58:17 SPEAKER_381: What would happen if it stayed till July first?
00:58:23 SPEAKER_381: It stayed.
00:58:24 SPEAKER_381: It opened on July first.
00:58:28 SPEAKER_381: That would be five months, right?
00:58:32 SPEAKER_381: You've got severity by July, state by July, recovery after opening, and key consequence.
00:58:41 SPEAKER_381: Now we can
00:58:43 SPEAKER_381: step through this.
00:59:08 SPEAKER_381: We can.
00:59:24 SPEAKER_381: I can
00:59:41 SPEAKER_381: give you a.
00:59:58 SPEAKER_381: copy of the slides, which you can
01:00:38 SPEAKER_381: post, and people can.
01:00:49 SPEAKER_381: Well, well, I mean, this is okay.
01:01:06 SPEAKER_381: We can.
01:01:11 SPEAKER_381: This is new information.
01:01:21 SPEAKER_381: Yeah.
01:01:24 SPEAKER_381: So, okay, or we can
01:01:36 SPEAKER_381: talk about it.
01:01:38 SPEAKER_381: Depends how much time we've got.
01:01:41 SPEAKER_381: So, oil and gas.
01:01:43 SPEAKER_381: The problem with gas is Europe is is coming out of the last winter heavily depleted, and now it's the time they want to actually sort of add more stuff to their store for winter, and this is where they normally get it from, and now they.
01:02:06 SPEAKER_381: can't.
01:02:07 SPEAKER_381: So that's going to be a problem.
01:02:10 SPEAKER_381: Oh yes.
01:02:11 SPEAKER_381: So fertilizers, urea, ammonia, phosphate, and food.
01:02:15 SPEAKER_381: So critical and severe, and so so critical is acute physical shortage, and severe means rationing and forced magere.
01:02:24 SPEAKER_381: So that's already on the books, for um for in in in context of banking.
01:02:32 SPEAKER_381: Oh, so what do
01:02:34 SPEAKER_381: you mean?
01:02:38 SPEAKER_381: It's already on the books.
01:02:47 SPEAKER_381: So so they're expecting.
01:02:54 SPEAKER_381: severe food shortages.
01:02:59 SPEAKER_381: So, this this is an outcome from talking to a banking actuary software.
01:03:23 SPEAKER_381: Right.
01:03:25 SPEAKER_381: Okay.
01:03:26 SPEAKER_381: I didn't do
01:03:32 SPEAKER_381: this now, so I got someone else to do
01:04:30 SPEAKER_307: this, and they've passed it to me.
01:04:53 SPEAKER_307: Uh huh.
01:05:00 SPEAKER_307: Asked them a series of questions, and then
01:05:27 SPEAKER_307: they they came up with this, and I'm allowed.
01:05:34 SPEAKER_307: They've asked not to be mentioned.
01:05:39 SPEAKER_381: Oh, I see.
01:05:42 SPEAKER_381: Okay, fair.
01:05:43 SPEAKER_381: So, so anyway, so you got spoilage of food stuff.
01:05:51 SPEAKER_308: stuck at sea and everything.
01:05:55 SPEAKER_308: I think a lot of these things are a little.
01:06:03 SPEAKER_308: A lot of these predictions are a little hyped because we we we we are so so used to things just at our fingertips, but but we can
01:06:25 SPEAKER_383: make do.
01:06:25 SPEAKER_383: So a lot of these things that are say critical and severe, the world is ending.
01:06:27 SPEAKER_383: I I would dial that back a little.
01:06:28 SPEAKER_383: Okay, let's say we've got a problem, not necessarily a a big problem yet.
01:06:29 SPEAKER_383: Right.
01:06:29 SPEAKER_383: So this is petrochemicals.
01:06:30 SPEAKER_383: and industrial.
01:06:30 SPEAKER_383: So naphtha, petroleum coke, methanol, and sulphur.
01:06:30 SPEAKER_383: Sulphur's a problem.
01:06:31 SPEAKER_383: This is what we actually put into seaboard into fertiliser.
01:06:32 SPEAKER_383: But sulphuric acid is a real problem.
01:06:32 SPEAKER_383: So a lot of copper mining and nickel and zinc.
01:06:33 SPEAKER_383: We need that sulphur for that too, right?
01:06:34 SPEAKER_383: And so now, what's been destroyed here is our ability to have.
01:06:35 SPEAKER_383: all these physical commodities that's still in the ground, right?
01:06:36 SPEAKER_383: But what's actually happening is our our economics is based on flow rate.
01:06:38 SPEAKER_383: Climate Peter Sternlich likes to point out that flow rate is actually the biggest difficulty that we're working with at the moment, and that's what's been destroyed.
01:06:40 SPEAKER_383: So metals, aluminium.
01:06:41 SPEAKER_383: So the smelter in in in the Middle East, they're not bringing in aluminium, alumina, and they're not.
01:06:43 SPEAKER_383: exporting aluminium.
01:06:43 SPEAKER_383: So about a third of the world supply of helium is offline.
01:06:44 SPEAKER_383: So okay, they can't.
01:06:44 SPEAKER_383: And so the United States produces most of the about half the world helium, right?
01:06:46 SPEAKER_383: But and but all that helium that's coming out of Qatar, even that was to go to Southeast Asia, right?
01:06:48 SPEAKER_383: And you can't.
01:06:48 SPEAKER_307: And and the problem there is you can't make semiconductors without without that helium.
01:06:50 SPEAKER_307: So hilarity will ensue there, because you need it for the lasers, right?
01:06:51 SPEAKER_307: Yeah.
01:06:51 SPEAKER_307: Oh, it's it's also quality control.
01:06:51 SPEAKER_307: To actually, you you need a helium to to make certain semiconductors.
01:06:53 SPEAKER_307: Oh, okay.
01:06:53 SPEAKER_307: And so, Dan, you have something.
01:06:53 SPEAKER_307: You need it to you need to grow the silicon crystals, the actual silicon metal.
01:06:55 SPEAKER_307: Oh, okay.
01:06:55 SPEAKER_307: All that has to be in a nerd environment.
01:06:56 SPEAKER_307: That's why they have to use helium, right?
01:06:57 SPEAKER_307: So students in a hamster wheel won't help us out of.
01:06:58 SPEAKER_307: this one.
01:06:58 SPEAKER_307: The other, the other, the other one too, Simon.
01:06:59 SPEAKER_307: You got you kind of, you kind of have it hidden there when you talk about the sulfur.
01:07:01 SPEAKER_307: When I saw the metal processing that was impacted, the first thing that came out, line the guys came back and said, "Hey, we can't process EV batteries." Yep, right.
01:07:04 SPEAKER_307: Apparently, the the critical piece for EV battery process was sulfur.
01:07:05 SPEAKER_307: Yeah.
01:07:05 SPEAKER_307: Shut all that.
01:07:05 SPEAKER_307: So these slides are available for anyone who wants them.
01:07:06 SPEAKER_307: So we we don't have to read everything.
01:07:07 SPEAKER_307: So.
01:07:07 SPEAKER_307: and GDP.
01:07:07 SPEAKER_307: This was hilarious.
01:07:08 SPEAKER_307: This is what they think is going to happen.
01:07:09 SPEAKER_307: Look at the wording here: Germany and Italy in technical recession.
01:07:10 SPEAKER_307: Like I asked, what's the risk of inflation?
01:07:11 SPEAKER_307: They said no risk, no risk.
01:07:11 SPEAKER_307: And I go, yeah, right, okay.
01:07:12 SPEAKER_307: So where where anything that comes out of the finance and banking sector at the moment, treat with suspicion.
01:07:14 SPEAKER_307: because they they really are looking at the things with you know rose colour glasses.
01:07:15 SPEAKER_307: Best case scenario, is he?
01:07:16 SPEAKER_307: So, right.
01:07:16 SPEAKER_307: So, okay.
01:07:16 SPEAKER_307: So, past that.
01:07:16 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
01:07:16 SPEAKER_307: So, you've seen that stuff.
01:07:17 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
01:07:17 SPEAKER_307: Right.
01:07:17 SPEAKER_307: People are asking, "What the hell's happening?" And so, like, what what the fire truck is Trump doing is a question I hear a lot.
01:07:20 SPEAKER_307: and I've got two basic models, and and one is you hear one one one thing where where it's a oh he's he's a mentally lunatic, single-handedly destroying civilization.
01:07:23 SPEAKER_307: Okay, and then
01:07:23 SPEAKER_307: there's the other one is no this this is a a five D chess model.
01:08:04 SPEAKER_381: I I've actually got I do
01:08:21 SPEAKER_381: believe there's a plan, and I do
01:09:18 SPEAKER_381: and and what I'm going to show here is is the Venezuela sequence.
01:09:26 SPEAKER_381: So in Trump's first term.
01:09:29 SPEAKER_381: he made a series of executive orders, which suggest that what happened in Venezuela is part of a that's been happening for years.
01:09:42 SPEAKER_381: So these this wasn't Trump Trump term one, Trump term one, right?
01:09:49 SPEAKER_381: And so written in the what's written in in in the wording of all these executive things in conjunction with the war on terror, and a lot of the stuff associated with the war on drugs legally means Trump, when he to do stuff, could do
01:10:16 SPEAKER_381: so without the normal due process.
01:10:26 SPEAKER_381: like going to Congress and all that sort of stuff, Trump too, right?
01:10:47 SPEAKER_381: So, so look at the dates here.
01:10:59 SPEAKER_381: So, 2017, 2018, 2019.
01:11:06 SPEAKER_381: Okay, so you know, then
01:11:14 SPEAKER_381: we got 2025.
01:11:19 SPEAKER_381: February.
01:11:21 SPEAKER_381: This is his second term.
01:11:31 SPEAKER_381: On 3rd of January 2026, that they went into Venezuela and captured the head of state of another nation state, and then
01:12:12 SPEAKER_381: they had the executive.
01:12:24 SPEAKER_381: order, you know, locking up all the oil revenue.
01:12:51 SPEAKER_307: Okay, and then they had, then
01:13:09 SPEAKER_307: we had the outcome here, and says, what, what, what the fire truck is this?
01:13:12 SPEAKER_307: Like seriously, you know.
01:13:12 SPEAKER_307: And now, one of the contacts I'm actually trying to actually get a project going with Thorium going in South America, and I'm talking to a couple of the governments there, and I've heard from two different sources now that every, all the nations in South America are all.
01:13:19 SPEAKER_307: being encouraged to become dependent, and the Americans are pushing this.
01:13:21 SPEAKER_381: The Americans want to become dependent on Venezuela, right?
01:13:22 SPEAKER_381: And and the word they used was like a junkie, for for for for not for for for energy flows, industrial flows, and all that.
01:13:25 SPEAKER_381: So, the Americans want to use Venezuela as a control point for the whole continent of South America.
01:13:28 SPEAKER_381: Is my understanding of that, which is why they're now interested in.
01:13:30 SPEAKER_381: in forum.
01:13:30 SPEAKER_381: So whatever went down in Venezuela, we're not.
01:13:31 SPEAKER_381: It's not publicly available information, but the plan is still in in in progress, right?
01:13:33 SPEAKER_381: So I'm of the opinion that there is a plan.
01:13:35 SPEAKER_381: So what is that plan?
01:13:35 SPEAKER_381: Now, these three documents are what's got everyone hot under the collar.
01:13:37 SPEAKER_381: The one in the middle, which is here, the the overhaul of the financial system.
01:13:39 SPEAKER_381: The base three banking accord, where they.
01:13:40 SPEAKER_381: you can't you you can't use fiat instruments anymore.
01:13:41 SPEAKER_381: That the paper instruments they can't sell paper silver, they can't sell paper gold anymore, or they shouldn't.
01:13:44 SPEAKER_381: And the um, my my understanding is the whole financial system is trying to transition away from that into physical backed assets, and that's what's causing a lot of the problem in the background.
01:13:49 SPEAKER_381: Right.
01:13:49 SPEAKER_381: So what I'm proposing here.
01:13:50 SPEAKER_381: this is actually a plan that was released in the nineteen forty s, but but I think it's expanded beyond this.
01:13:52 SPEAKER_381: This was the technate, where you know, remember when Greenland happened, everyone lost their mind over that.
01:13:55 SPEAKER_381: What what I did professionally was I did an analysis on Greenland.
01:13:57 SPEAKER_381: There's not enough you know rare earth elements in Greenland to justify what happened, so I think something else is going on, and.
01:14:00 SPEAKER_381: hang on, will it work?
01:14:01 SPEAKER_381: Ha!
01:14:01 SPEAKER_381: It works.
01:14:01 SPEAKER_381: Look at that.
01:14:01 SPEAKER_381: Right.
01:14:02 SPEAKER_381: So you've got.
01:14:02 SPEAKER_381: We've seen Greenland.
01:14:02 SPEAKER_381: We've seen Alberta.
01:14:03 SPEAKER_381: You know, with the oil sands.
01:14:04 SPEAKER_381: The Americans are actually talking to the Albertans to secede.
01:14:05 SPEAKER_381: There's the cartels in Mexico.
01:14:06 SPEAKER_381: We're now talking about Cuba, the Panama canals, and then
01:14:07 SPEAKER_381: we've got Venezuela.
01:14:08 SPEAKER_381: Right.
01:14:09 SPEAKER_381: So this is what they were talking about.
01:14:12 SPEAKER_381: What the American infrastructure should be politically.
01:14:14 SPEAKER_381: Now, I believe what they want is to the faction that has actually sort of have pulled out of the Uniteds.
01:14:22 SPEAKER_381: The faction that has been in charge of the global, let's call it business ventures, interest groups since the end of World War II, tried to replace the petrodollar.
01:14:32 SPEAKER_383: The 1973 petrodollar with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the TPP, TTIP, T.
01:14:36 SPEAKER_383: T I P T I A.
01:14:38 SPEAKER_383: When that failed in two thousand and eight, we started seeing the factional war, and this group started to take over.
01:14:46 SPEAKER_383: And Trump, I believe, was adopted by that group, and he is the face of that group.
01:14:52 SPEAKER_383: So we are seeing, for example, the destruction of the global empire and imperial empire, but also the consolidation of the American domestic frontier is expanding.
01:15:02 SPEAKER_383: And they've got a very short time to do
01:15:05 SPEAKER_381: this because.
01:15:10 SPEAKER_381: you know the power of the American dollar with the hyperinflationary problems, they're not going to be able to do
01:16:03 SPEAKER_381: it for much longer.
01:16:28 SPEAKER_381: So they have to do
01:17:00 SPEAKER_381: it quickly.
01:17:01 SPEAKER_381: All right.
01:17:01 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, you've seen that.
01:17:02 SPEAKER_381: Okay.
01:17:03 SPEAKER_381: Right.
01:17:03 SPEAKER_381: This is what I think is happening.
01:17:05 SPEAKER_381: These are the two the two wings of the model.
01:17:07 SPEAKER_381: One is we're seeing the civil war and what we call the Committee of Three Hundred or you know the deep state.
01:17:13 SPEAKER_381: One side is destroying the other side's capability.
01:17:15 SPEAKER_381: Now, the global imperial system.
01:17:16 SPEAKER_381: which is based on the petrodollar, based in London, a fiat currency, and they've been sort of running like an invisible empire for decades.
01:17:22 SPEAKER_381: That is now being disrupted.
01:17:23 SPEAKER_381: What has happened in the Iran situation, in particular, they put the American military in an untenable position.
01:17:27 SPEAKER_381: They've destroyed the international reputation of America, which means if Trump's opponents got back into power.
01:17:31 SPEAKER_381: Their ability to re-establish their old empire is gone.
01:17:34 SPEAKER_381: The U.S.
01:17:34 SPEAKER_381: dollar is toast.
01:17:35 SPEAKER_381: The the U.S.
01:17:35 SPEAKER_381: diplomatic reputation is toast.
01:17:36 SPEAKER_381: No one will believe or trust the Americans ever again.
01:17:39 SPEAKER_381: And but they're using might is right and power, raw power, to establish their own thing domestically.
01:17:43 SPEAKER_381: So I also think that the Israel That the Israeli influence of the U.S.
01:17:47 SPEAKER_381: government is being spotlighted and is now being seriously eroded, and I think we're going to see a situation where the Americans are going to blow stuff up, achieve their own objectives, which is blow stuff up, take certain people out, take certain assets out, and then
01:17:58 SPEAKER_387: they're just going to pack up and go home, and leave the Israelis to face the music on their own.
01:18:03 SPEAKER_387: Now, if the Israelis survive that, they'll be much much weaker.
01:18:05 SPEAKER_387: So, what's also happened is now that the the Middle East war is is in progress, domestic oil, U.S., Canadian, Mexican, and Venezuela oil is now much, much, much, much, much more valuable, and and of course Russia benefits from that too.
01:18:14 SPEAKER_387: The old systems seem wiped out.
01:18:16 SPEAKER_387: So what I call this model is the global imperial petrodollar empire versus the new American power bloc, which involves North and South.
01:18:21 SPEAKER_387: Right.
01:18:21 SPEAKER_387: That.
01:18:21 SPEAKER_387: Right.
01:18:21 SPEAKER_387: That's one wing.
01:18:22 SPEAKER_387: This is the other wing.
01:18:23 SPEAKER_387: Techno feudalism overseeing regional blocks versus the rest of us who think we are used to self determination.
01:18:27 SPEAKER_387: So this is like one actual plan, and everything we're seeing is fake theatre and orchestrated.
01:18:30 SPEAKER_387: There's actually evidence on the ground for both of these wings.
01:18:33 SPEAKER_387: So we're seeing the destruction of the current economic and industrial systems.
01:18:36 SPEAKER_387: The food system, in particular, is taking hit after hit.
01:18:38 SPEAKER_387: And so people in the world, all over the world, are being put in a desperate situation, which makes us very susceptible to suggestion.
01:18:43 SPEAKER_387: And what I believe is happening is that to make the way for the uncloaking of the new system, which is still, which is already largely built, just got to uncloak AI and automation has been implemented everywhere, especially in government, where people are no longer needed.
01:18:53 SPEAKER_387: And what that means is a relatively small number of people can
01:18:56 SPEAKER_387: control a large proportion of assessment.
01:18:58 SPEAKER_387: And so we're seeing a lot of infrastructure like data centres and.
01:19:01 SPEAKER_387: five G and all that, and like someone has yet to tell me the actual business case behind data centres.
01:19:07 SPEAKER_387: So they're the two weeks together, and so what we're actually seeing is the same basic outcome.
01:19:12 SPEAKER_387: Both of those weeks doesn't really matter which of those things we're because we're end up in the same place, and this is the place that we're going to.
01:19:20 SPEAKER_387: So this is the great reset they keep talking about.
01:19:23 SPEAKER_387: Now, what's going to happen?
01:19:24 SPEAKER_387: I believe is a series of very difficult circumstances is going to happen to convince.
01:19:29 SPEAKER_387: Is going to have to convince us to take us in this direction to accept this.
01:19:33 SPEAKER_387: So we've got cryptocurrency, programmable money, similar to Bitcoin, but but from a central point.
01:19:38 SPEAKER_387: What that means is, what you spend your money in will be dependent on who you are.
01:19:43 SPEAKER_387: You know, so and whether you've actually, you know, whether they, whether you're allowed to spend that money on those things.
01:19:49 SPEAKER_387: The social credit system, similar to the Sesame Credit in China, are you a good citizen?
01:19:53 SPEAKER_387: Are do
01:19:54 SPEAKER_387: you support the government?
01:19:56 SPEAKER_387: What have you?
01:19:57 SPEAKER_387: The digital passport.
01:19:59 SPEAKER_387: This what they tried to bring out during COVID.
01:20:04 SPEAKER_307: The ESG window is says what will be allowed.
01:20:09 SPEAKER_307: How much carbon credits have you consumed this month?
01:20:14 SPEAKER_307: And if it's too much, we're not going to let you buy meat, for example.
01:20:22 SPEAKER_387: The police surveillance state.
01:20:24 SPEAKER_387: The digital privacy is essentially gone.
01:20:27 SPEAKER_387: And private property ownership.
01:20:29 SPEAKER_387: So this is will will change.
01:20:32 SPEAKER_387: So this is the great reset.
01:20:35 SPEAKER_387: You will own nothing.
01:20:38 SPEAKER_387: Be happy.
01:20:39 SPEAKER_387: and what they mean is they'll rent everything from the state.
01:20:45 SPEAKER_387: The way that will work, I believe, is if the if we do
01:20:51 SPEAKER_387: see a financial crash and it's hard enough, banks will then
01:21:49 SPEAKER_387: be forced into a situation where they'll have to call in loans.
01:21:58 SPEAKER_387: And we saw that in 1929.
01:22:02 SPEAKER_387: Well, I didn't see it, but that that that document is what happened.
01:22:11 SPEAKER_387: Banks were forced to call in loans to have a physical asset on the books to maintain their own value.
01:22:25 SPEAKER_387: So any loan, like a mortgage for a house or or a car or anything, they can.
01:22:37 SPEAKER_387: actually sort of, you know, recover as a consequence of a debt, will then
01:22:47 SPEAKER_387: be transferred to the banking sector.
01:22:49 SPEAKER_387: Right.
01:22:49 SPEAKER_387: So we've got an AI decision system and data fusion centres, which are all managing the data flows.
01:22:55 SPEAKER_387: And what's underpinning all this is the development of new technologies for semiconductors.
01:22:59 SPEAKER_387: And so the pitch battle at the moment is the combination of AI, data centres, and the new technology that's coming on.
01:23:06 SPEAKER_387: and what they use all this for.
01:23:08 SPEAKER_387: So this is technocracy was a good way of describing, but that's been twisted into something else.
01:23:14 SPEAKER_387: And a better description is actually technofuturism.
01:23:16 SPEAKER_387: To get there, we're going to see a combination of economic devastation, energy shortage, food shortage, or physical lockdown, or all of the vectors.
01:23:23 SPEAKER_387: Do we have another pandemic?
01:23:25 SPEAKER_387: Good old-fashioned terrorism.
01:23:26 SPEAKER_387: War and terror has been going since two thousand and one.
01:23:29 SPEAKER_387: Is it a famine?
01:23:31 SPEAKER_387: Now we haven't seen.
01:23:32 SPEAKER_387: famine historically for a long time, but I think the food system's being hit many, many times.
01:23:37 SPEAKER_387: Possible.
01:23:38 SPEAKER_387: Good old-fashioned war, or and the best vector for this in the current is some kind of cyber information bomb, which will then
01:23:45 SPEAKER_387: convince everyone to move across to this system.
01:23:59 SPEAKER_387: What's behind this?
01:24:04 SPEAKER_387: The long-term goal, I believe, is transhumanism.
01:24:16 SPEAKER_387: Okay, that's me done.
01:24:23 SPEAKER_387: Well, thank you, Simon.
01:24:30 SPEAKER_387: That was quite a presentation.
01:24:39 SPEAKER_387: Do do
01:24:43 SPEAKER_387: we have some questions from the panel for Simon?
01:25:00 SPEAKER_387: These are my opinions.
01:25:08 SPEAKER_387: This is just like something I'm sort of developing over time.
01:25:29 SPEAKER_387: It's a hard.
01:25:35 SPEAKER_387: It's how do
01:25:40 SPEAKER_387: I make sense of what they've seen?
01:25:55 SPEAKER_387: Because otherwise, it's irrational.
01:26:04 SPEAKER_387: Doesn't yeah.
01:26:08 SPEAKER_387: I've I've heard a lot of those things on the internet before.
01:26:34 SPEAKER_387: How do
01:26:38 SPEAKER_387: we put them together?
01:27:04 SPEAKER_387: Yes, exactly.
01:27:17 SPEAKER_387: Spiders observed observable.
01:27:36 SPEAKER_387: So, there's a question from the chat.
01:27:46 SPEAKER_389: In the July scenario, how will the crude shortage impact construction and development?
01:28:04 SPEAKER_389: I think it will disrupt the flows and delivery of physical goods.
01:28:21 SPEAKER_387: Right.
01:28:22 SPEAKER_387: So, so physical goods arrive.
01:28:29 SPEAKER_387: If they do
01:28:34 SPEAKER_387: arrive, they're not.
01:28:34 SPEAKER_387: They're not going to be the same price, and it is not.
01:28:37 SPEAKER_387: It's not going to be available for everyone.
01:28:39 SPEAKER_387: Everything's just going to become more expensive.
01:28:41 SPEAKER_387: That's that's the plan.
01:28:42 SPEAKER_387: Dan, you have a question.
01:28:43 SPEAKER_387: Yeah, not a question.
01:28:44 SPEAKER_387: As of Wednesday.
01:28:45 SPEAKER_387: Yeah, yesterday, how many projected AI data centres in the United States have been cancelled?
01:28:49 SPEAKER_387: Yeah, that'll that'll them.
01:28:50 SPEAKER_387: Okay, the basic question of with the will AI take over the world or will the energy crunch take over AI?
01:28:55 SPEAKER_387: That's a good question.
01:28:56 SPEAKER_387: There's a battle going on whether the whether the yeah the energy crisis and and the chip shortage and so forth will basically keep us from building the AI data centre.
01:29:04 SPEAKER_387: We were already going to have a collision in twenty twenty eight anyway, just over the natural gas in the United States.
01:29:09 SPEAKER_387: What we've done is we've sped up the entire process.
01:29:12 SPEAKER_387: Well, and we're getting more public pushback on on local data centres.
01:29:14 SPEAKER_387: You know, there was this scam that oh, all the jobs that had gone away would now come back when we had this data centre, and people are now thinking and going, ah, ah.
01:29:23 SPEAKER_387: You know, ten people are going to be employed there plus the robots.
01:29:26 SPEAKER_387: Yeah, and so.
01:29:27 SPEAKER_387: there's more and more pushback on the data centres, which is making it harder to get them in.
01:29:31 SPEAKER_387: Even then, a good chunk of the industry's AI data centres were there in the Middle East, there in the UAE, and have been destroyed, or a good chunk of them have been destroyed.
01:29:43 SPEAKER_387: So, that's good riddance.
01:29:44 SPEAKER_387: Yeah, I know that people have been talking about how the.
01:29:48 SPEAKER_387: AIs have gone down in quality a lot in the last few weeks, and it's quite possibly due to the destruction of those AI data centres, where they don't have as much compute anymore to deal with those things.
01:30:01 SPEAKER_387: Okay, I see.
01:30:02 SPEAKER_387: Leon has his hand up.
01:30:04 SPEAKER_387: You have a question?
01:30:06 SPEAKER_387: Yeah, for for Simon.
01:30:07 SPEAKER_387: How you doing, Simon?
01:30:08 SPEAKER_387: Been a while.
01:30:09 SPEAKER_387: Indeed.
01:30:10 SPEAKER_387: How you doing?
01:30:11 SPEAKER_387: I saw your.
01:30:12 SPEAKER_387: chat with Capital Cosum a few months back, and you discussed the shipping trade routes, right?
01:30:17 SPEAKER_387: Yeah.
01:30:17 SPEAKER_387: Yesterday, I I saw Pepe Escobar doing an interview regarding the Strait of Malacca, and and and that there had been some meetings with Indonesia in chat and.
01:30:27 SPEAKER_387: With Indonesia and US delegates, do
01:30:29 SPEAKER_387: you know anything about that?
01:30:34 SPEAKER_387: Right.
01:30:36 SPEAKER_387: So the remember a couple of years ago there was there was a lot of discussion about you know South China Sea.
01:30:59 SPEAKER_387: Yeah, and everything.
01:31:02 SPEAKER_387: Well, really, that was actually the energy flow from.
01:31:12 SPEAKER_387: But China is mostly self self sufficient for coal and gas.
01:31:24 SPEAKER_387: Like they do
01:31:27 SPEAKER_387: import both, but they all expect export.
01:31:30 SPEAKER_387: If they stop that out, it would roughly even out.
01:31:34 SPEAKER_387: Half their oil, though, is coming being imported, and most of that is coming from Iran, and most of that's coming through the South China Sea, right?
01:31:46 SPEAKER_387: And so, that so the United States was actually parking military ships, trying to disrupt and control their energy lifeblood.
01:31:54 SPEAKER_387: That that's what was that war all about?
01:31:57 SPEAKER_387: There's the Strait of Malacca.
01:32:00 SPEAKER_387: If if I remember this rightly, that that's actually a very narrow strait near Indonesia.
01:32:06 SPEAKER_387: where a lot of the ships are flowing through, and that that that is a material flow choke point that's going to cause a lot of choke point.
01:32:18 SPEAKER_387: Yeah.
01:32:18 SPEAKER_387: If they if they are successful in disrupting that, a lot of these things can
01:32:25 SPEAKER_387: be rerouted though, right?
01:32:27 SPEAKER_387: So so this is what happened in the Ukraine war.
01:32:35 SPEAKER_307: Is is if they if they disrupt a flow point, well just.
01:32:43 SPEAKER_307: Flow point, but just find it for no.
01:32:49 SPEAKER_307: Sail a different way, right?
01:32:52 SPEAKER_307: The the problem is if they disrupt it on something that needs to be operating day in day out, and a disruption that actually stops, and and and and rolls, um, uh, stops something from happening for a period of time, then
01:33:22 SPEAKER_307: people go out of business, industries go down.
01:33:25 SPEAKER_307: That's what they're breaking.
01:33:26 SPEAKER_307: It's not the resources in the ground.
01:33:28 SPEAKER_307: It's not the physical goods.
01:33:29 SPEAKER_307: It's the flow rate, and the.
01:33:31 SPEAKER_308: Strait of Malacca is is similar to the Strait of Hormuz, but if they tried some monkey business there, oh, they'll find a way around it.
01:33:38 SPEAKER_308: Yeah, it's a big sea.
01:33:40 SPEAKER_307: Do you think the choke points around the the shipping channels, the shipping routes, are going to be kind of pivotal over the next?
01:33:47 SPEAKER_307: Yes, yes, yes, yes.
01:33:48 SPEAKER_307: We're already seeing that.
01:33:49 SPEAKER_307: So the U.S.
01:33:50 SPEAKER_307: developed the Panama Canal, right?
01:33:51 SPEAKER_308: They they dug the Panama Canal and gave to Panama, but the Chinese companies owned by the PRC.
01:33:56 SPEAKER_308: government, control both ends of that Panama Canal.
01:33:59 SPEAKER_308: They also control the strait along around the bottom of South America, right?
01:34:02 SPEAKER_383: And they were controlling parts of the strait around the bottom of South Africa.
01:34:06 SPEAKER_383: And in fact, you could say that's one of the reasons why South Africa is in BRICS, because they control that strait.
01:34:13 SPEAKER_383: And so yes, the the flow of of goods, not only the fuel to supply the shipping, and who owns the ships themselves, but where do
01:34:20 SPEAKER_383: they go?
01:34:25 SPEAKER_383: And the idea of it's a free country or international contract law and free market mechanisms—yeah, no, they're all gone.
01:35:18 SPEAKER_383: It's physical stuff, and how do
01:36:16 SPEAKER_383: we actually get?
01:36:20 SPEAKER_383: that physical?
01:36:24 SPEAKER_381: Get hold of that physical stuff.
01:36:33 SPEAKER_381: Who controls that stuff?
01:36:40 SPEAKER_381: Okay, I have another question from the chat.
01:36:53 SPEAKER_381: asking if AI will be the a principal actor in managing economic decline.
01:37:13 SPEAKER_381: That's an interesting one, actually.
01:37:16 SPEAKER_381: Yeah.
01:37:17 SPEAKER_381: So, well, there's a couple of schools of thought there.
01:37:22 SPEAKER_381: That depends on what.
01:37:24 SPEAKER_381: So, we think AI is going to be used as a tool to make humanity better.
01:37:32 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, the people who promote that's that's that's what they think.
01:37:38 SPEAKER_381: I think they're a bad actor to make sure that we see a bad outcome, which means all.
01:37:47 SPEAKER_381: thumbs apart, we'll fall blah blah blah.
01:37:51 SPEAKER_381: But when we try and piece them all back together, part of society will come back online.
01:37:59 SPEAKER_381: But the parts that come back online will benefit those bad actors, I believe.
01:38:07 SPEAKER_381: And I believe AI used as a control structure.
01:38:11 SPEAKER_381: So if you want to use AI to develop business to make everyone richer, will those systems that underpin everything?
01:38:21 SPEAKER_381: They're all this is the idea of techno feudalism.
01:38:26 SPEAKER_381: A lot of those systems go through a relatively small number of companies that are not accountable to anyone or anything.
01:38:37 SPEAKER_381: Like what's the footprint of Google, for example, or Meta, or Alphabet?
01:38:43 SPEAKER_383: You know, and just because we're their customer now, does that mean they're going to let us be their customer in the same way?
01:38:55 SPEAKER_383: And that's the true answer to that question.
01:38:59 SPEAKER_383: Will we be able to use AI?
01:39:02 SPEAKER_383: the way we're using it now, and if the answer is no, then
01:39:09 SPEAKER_383: that'll control the outcome.
01:39:10 SPEAKER_381: And I know that it's already no in terms of because of the deterioration in the quality of AIs, and especially like the free plans and things like that.
01:39:18 SPEAKER_381: They that they're shutting down and lowering like the free plans, and they're lowering the amount of usage that people get, and it may all be.
01:39:26 SPEAKER_381: related to this most recent energy crisis.
01:39:27 SPEAKER_381: What's weird, like you know, they have got the two basic wings.
01:39:31 SPEAKER_389: Are we seeing a civil war, or is this a theatre that a situation that's been organised?
01:39:36 SPEAKER_389: So we know, like I'm from Australia, and in Australia we're we're a very small cog at the end of a very long supply chain, and they had 30 days supply of some of their stuff, right?
01:39:46 SPEAKER_389: And yeah, yeah, Barbara's.
01:39:47 SPEAKER_389: laughing.
01:39:47 SPEAKER_389: Yeah.
01:39:48 SPEAKER_389: So, thirty days supply gets funnier.
01:39:49 SPEAKER_389: So, they wait till it's run down to about twenty days before.
01:39:53 SPEAKER_389: We really should, you know, slow things down a little.
01:39:56 SPEAKER_389: And when I was in Australia recently, everyone's behaviour was the same.
01:39:59 SPEAKER_389: No one was, no one was trying to.
01:40:01 SPEAKER_389: You know, they weren't talking rationing.
01:40:03 SPEAKER_308: People on the ground were understanding things.
01:40:05 SPEAKER_308: There's two refineries, and those refineries do
01:40:07 SPEAKER_308: ten percent of all the energy needs for Australia, right?
01:40:11 SPEAKER_308: This morning, or was it last night?
01:40:15 SPEAKER_383: They had a fire on one of those refineries, and it's been shut down.
01:40:22 SPEAKER_383: What are the odds?
01:40:23 SPEAKER_383: A coincidence.
01:40:24 SPEAKER_383: Yeah.
01:40:25 SPEAKER_383: Okay, Dan.
01:40:26 SPEAKER_383: Dan.
01:40:26 SPEAKER_383: Okay.
01:40:27 SPEAKER_383: Now Australia is importing naive service fuel.
01:40:30 SPEAKER_383: Yep.
01:40:31 SPEAKER_383: Guys, there have been a bunch of fire damages in U.S.
01:40:36 SPEAKER_383: production facilities in the past four or five years.
01:40:40 SPEAKER_383: a much higher rate than would be expected simply by chance and and simply by the aging of these facilities.
01:40:50 SPEAKER_383: Yeah.
01:40:50 SPEAKER_382: So that's something that I don't hear anybody but conspiracy theorists talk about.
01:40:56 SPEAKER_383: But but as we think about shutting stuff down, you know, you just damage it and then
01:41:04 SPEAKER_383: it's done.
01:41:10 SPEAKER_383: Doesn't matter what the public outcry is.
01:41:27 SPEAKER_383: Too bad.
01:41:32 SPEAKER_383: So sad.
01:41:37 SPEAKER_383: That's the situation we've moved into.
01:41:52 SPEAKER_382: And if you do
01:42:02 SPEAKER_382: the same analysis on the food system, how many times has the food system been hit?
01:42:15 SPEAKER_382: And it's and it's well and truly beyond what's sensible.
01:42:22 SPEAKER_382: Oh yeah.
01:42:24 SPEAKER_382: I mean, we just had a huge fire in in in a storage facility in California, right?
01:42:37 SPEAKER_382: Yeah.
01:42:38 SPEAKER_382: And all all of those things, they're they're not simply a lightning strike.
01:42:48 SPEAKER_382: They're they're Strike.
01:42:50 SPEAKER_382: They may or may not be terrorism, but they're certainly happening a lot.
01:43:00 SPEAKER_382: Okay.
01:43:03 SPEAKER_382: We just have another presentation from John, and I wanted to give him that chance, and then
01:43:58 SPEAKER_382: we'll get back to discussion.
01:44:13 SPEAKER_382: He said it wasn't very long.
01:44:31 SPEAKER_382: John, are you available?
01:44:43 SPEAKER_382: Yeah.
01:44:46 SPEAKER_382: John.
01:44:49 SPEAKER_382: All right.
01:44:56 SPEAKER_382: Here we go.
01:45:02 SPEAKER_382: You got the presentation, okay?
01:45:12 SPEAKER_382: Is that looking?
01:45:18 SPEAKER_382: Yeah, I see it.
01:45:26 SPEAKER_382: I see the window.
01:45:35 SPEAKER_307: I'm not sure if you got the full screen.
01:45:53 SPEAKER_307: But you could just go through the slides like this if you want.
01:45:59 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
01:46:00 SPEAKER_307: All right.
01:46:00 SPEAKER_307: So this is a system dynamic model of the effects of the closure, and to be upfront about this, I started this three days ago, so it's very rough.
01:46:13 SPEAKER_307: So, the first thing I think you guys know very well what's happening here, but I have a feeling that the public doesn't really.
01:46:24 SPEAKER_307: Public doesn't really—they kind of think it's over there, and you know, maybe have some impact, but it's probably manageable or something.
01:46:34 SPEAKER_307: And so, I wanted to kind of dive in and take a look at really what's going to affect us.
01:46:43 SPEAKER_307: So, neoclassical economics treats oil as an input to the economy.
01:46:48 SPEAKER_307: If there's an increase in the price, then
01:46:51 SPEAKER_307: suppliers will fill in, and there's equilibrium is restored.
01:46:53 SPEAKER_307: And they think that you know, oil is two to three percent of the economy, so it's not a huge impact.
01:46:58 SPEAKER_307: Countering that, I looked up and found out that food production is only four percent of the economy.
01:47:02 SPEAKER_307: So if we took away all food, the economy will.
01:47:05 SPEAKER_307: Yeah.
01:47:05 SPEAKER_307: So I'm thinking there's some some.
01:47:06 SPEAKER_307: I'm thinking there's some assumptions that are wrong.
01:47:08 SPEAKER_307: Yeah, for sure.
01:47:09 SPEAKER_307: Okay, so what I did was I looked at, you know, kind of at a broad scale.
01:47:13 SPEAKER_307: What does the economy really look like?
01:47:14 SPEAKER_307: And it's, you know, very complex, interrelated things.
01:47:16 SPEAKER_307: You know, that you've got oil going into producing, you know, diesel fuel that runs the tractors.
01:47:20 SPEAKER_383: that gives us the food and all that sort of thing, and so so there's you know the longer this goes on, the more irreversibilities there are in the process.
01:47:27 SPEAKER_383: Neoclassical is going to say everything gets resolved in six, twelve months or something.
01:47:30 SPEAKER_383: The feedback model that I've got here says that things compound and they may become permanent.
01:47:34 SPEAKER_383: Okay, crude grades matter, and most of the Gulf crude is heavy sour, and refineries are heavily dependent on what grade you get.
01:47:39 SPEAKER_383: So you can't just, you know, shove U.S.
01:47:41 SPEAKER_383: shale or Norwegian light back into the the process.
01:47:43 SPEAKER_383: So we're really taking a lot of critical crude off the.
01:47:46 SPEAKER_383: market that is maybe not being picked up by a lot of economists.
01:47:49 SPEAKER_383: Okay, and diesel is the real problem here.
01:47:50 SPEAKER_383: So we're losing quite a bit of it, maybe as much as twenty to thirty-five percent of world diesel is coming off the line, and at the same time we're going to be losing.
01:47:57 SPEAKER_383: bunker fuel for transoceanic shipping, kerosene jet fuel for air freight, and I just saw this morning that Europe has maybe six weeks of jet fuel left.
01:48:02 SPEAKER_383: Well, and I found it interesting.
01:48:04 SPEAKER_383: Like no one's mentioned before for me, anyways, that it's fifty to sixty percent of globally traded oil that's come offline.
01:48:08 SPEAKER_383: Yeah, and we're seeing this.
01:48:09 SPEAKER_383: And we've seen this, you know.
01:48:10 SPEAKER_383: I showed this before, but and it aligns pretty well with what Dan was saying earlier.
01:48:13 SPEAKER_383: That discoveries are just, you know, I mean, they're small fraction of what we're actually consuming.
01:48:16 SPEAKER_383: So we already had a problem, and now this is going to compound it.
01:48:19 SPEAKER_383: Okay, so in this model, what I did was I built a set of these sort of interlocking equations that take into account all these various interactions between resources, and I have a baseline here of if there had been no closure of Hormuz, what would happen over the next ten years?
01:48:29 SPEAKER_383: That's that blue line.
01:48:30 SPEAKER_307: And that includes the decline just due to the fact that we're probably close to or at peak oil now.
01:48:34 SPEAKER_307: With the closure, I have a different, a set of different scenarios here, ranging from two months of closure out to five years, and I assumed that there would be a SPR.
01:48:40 SPEAKER_307: backfill.
01:48:41 SPEAKER_307: I gave it almost two years.
01:48:42 SPEAKER_307: I think Dan was saying considerably less than that, maybe six months tops.
01:48:44 SPEAKER_307: So I may be optimistic on that.
01:48:46 SPEAKER_307: But as you can
01:48:47 SPEAKER_307: see, under every scenario, we're going to be severely restricted going forward.
01:49:44 SPEAKER_383: Price dynamics of crude.
01:49:45 SPEAKER_383: This is, you know, probably a lot of or fairly speculative, but fairly soon we could be seeing much higher spikes in the price per barrel.
01:49:51 SPEAKER_383: But then, what I expect is that we're going to see demand destruction that will bring the cost back down.
01:49:55 SPEAKER_383: But that's going to be, you know, kind of a false.
01:49:57 SPEAKER_307: indicator that it's really because of demand destruction rather than you know a real price reduction.
01:50:01 SPEAKER_307: And I let it run above one hundred fifty dollars a barrel, but will probably you know if it actually did that, there would probably be financial system seizure.
01:50:07 SPEAKER_307: Okay, so how fast does?
01:50:08 SPEAKER_307: the economy contract?
01:50:08 SPEAKER_307: We saw in the 1973 shock a three percent per year reduction in GDP.
01:50:11 SPEAKER_307: This is much bigger.
01:50:12 SPEAKER_307: As Ben was showing, it was like you know a twenty percent reduction in oil availability.
01:50:15 SPEAKER_307: So you know probably optimistically at least five and a half percent.
01:50:18 SPEAKER_307: reduction, but there's all these feedbacks that are going to start kicking in and making things worse.
01:50:22 SPEAKER_307: And there's no no substitution at this point.
01:50:23 SPEAKER_307: Okay, so again, this is probably a bit optimistic, but you know, if this goes on too much longer, we're going to start seeing.
01:50:28 SPEAKER_307: some really serious impacts to the the world economy, and even you know the the two month one here.
01:50:32 SPEAKER_307: This may be, you know, I don't have every possible feedback loop in here, so that could be a bit optimistic.
01:50:37 SPEAKER_307: Okay, here's the.
01:50:37 SPEAKER_307: oil prices, and again, I included a release over almost two years of SPR.
01:50:40 SPEAKER_307: That's going to be a bit much, and then
01:50:42 SPEAKER_307: again, I let prices rise, you know, just as as a function of how much you know oil is left in the ground, basically.
01:51:17 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
01:51:18 SPEAKER_307: The other thing is the sulfur chain, and because Gulf crude is sour, they can
01:51:40 SPEAKER_389: extract a lot of sulfur.
01:51:44 SPEAKER_389: And we've talked about this already.
01:51:48 SPEAKER_389: There's a huge hit on internationally traded sulfur.
01:51:54 SPEAKER_389: And Dan was saying that sulfuric acid is used for extracting copper, and so we're going to see, you know.
01:52:10 SPEAKER_389: huge reduction in metals and minerals that are currently on the market, and so without oil, we're not going to be making this green energy transition, especially if the economy takes a huge hit.
01:52:36 SPEAKER_382: And then
01:52:38 SPEAKER_382: there's the food problem, and this includes sulfur, but also nitrogen fertilizer using Haber Bosch process.
01:52:45 SPEAKER_382: We're probably already seeing this.
01:52:47 SPEAKER_382: It's just, I mean, we we haven't seen it yet, but it it's already kind of baked in.
01:52:55 SPEAKER_382: It just hasn't gotten here yet.
01:52:57 SPEAKER_382: Yeah, we're we're still eating food from last year.
01:53:01 SPEAKER_382: Exactly right.
01:53:02 SPEAKER_382: And so here's the the model expectations for food reductions, and this is as a fraction of the baseline.
01:53:11 SPEAKER_382: and so it's a massive hit here, even for a short-term closure.
01:53:16 SPEAKER_382: Basically, you get about a third taken off of the the.
01:53:21 SPEAKER_382: Third of the food.
01:53:23 SPEAKER_382: Yeah.
01:53:23 SPEAKER_382: Wow.
01:53:23 SPEAKER_307: And that recovery assumes that we start start shipping food internationally again.
01:53:29 SPEAKER_307: Correct.
01:53:29 SPEAKER_307: Right.
01:53:30 SPEAKER_307: Yeah, and the.
01:53:31 SPEAKER_307: recoveries are kind of almost magical, right?
01:53:34 SPEAKER_307: That everything's fine.
01:53:35 SPEAKER_307: Yeah, everybody's undercounting how long it'll take for the shipping industry to recover from this.
01:53:40 SPEAKER_307: Yeah, yeah, everybody's underestimating, and like I said, if you talk to them, would you think it ever would?
01:53:46 SPEAKER_307: I mean, I'm not going to set up to buy food from Asia anymore.
01:53:51 SPEAKER_307: I mean, I'm going to seriously think about how I get a local supply chain, and I think a lot of people are.
01:53:59 SPEAKER_307: and that's what we're talking about: deglobalization, Barbara.
01:54:01 SPEAKER_307: Just because of that, yeah.
01:54:03 SPEAKER_307: So, so these these are very optimistic.
01:54:05 SPEAKER_307: Agricultural impact, recoveries, recoveries.
01:54:06 SPEAKER_307: Okay, yeah.
01:54:07 SPEAKER_307: Yeah, what you what you don't realize is, right now in Iowa, they have to put that ammonia fertilizer in the ground, like right around April fifteenth.
01:54:16 SPEAKER_307: and this is not.
01:54:17 SPEAKER_307: This is the breadbasket of the country we live in.
01:54:20 SPEAKER_307: You know, Dan and Dan and I, and several others in this thing.
01:54:25 SPEAKER_307: So the world is not going to be able to produce like down a third.
01:54:30 SPEAKER_307: This is a this is a freaking nightmare.
01:54:32 SPEAKER_307: Thank you.
01:54:33 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
01:54:33 SPEAKER_383: Then we've talked about what happens if you can't keep the oil producing, and that's going to be a huge impact.
01:54:52 SPEAKER_383: I think we'll—I'll skip this because Dan already covered it pretty well.
01:55:02 SPEAKER_383: Okay.
01:55:03 SPEAKER_383: Now this is great, John.
01:55:07 SPEAKER_383: I mean, you're—you're just re-entering the same things I talked about.
01:55:17 SPEAKER_383: Yeah.
01:55:18 SPEAKER_383: Good stuff.
01:55:20 SPEAKER_383: Here's the picture of the system dynamic model that I used.
01:55:29 SPEAKER_383: You can
01:55:31 SPEAKER_383: see how lots of stuff in here, although it's not even as complex as it really ought to be, and just be clear: this isn't a real prediction method.
01:55:39 SPEAKER_383: It's just possible scenarios.
01:55:40 SPEAKER_383: So I'm not predicting when the Strait will reopen.
01:55:42 SPEAKER_307: I'm not showing what will happen if the price of oil goes over $150 a barrel, and there could be, you know, sort of an institutional collapse if it stays too long, yeah.
01:55:51 SPEAKER_307: Okay, I already said that.
01:55:52 SPEAKER_307: Okay, so three questions that probably are not being really well addressed by the public or mainstream economists is why is diesel worse than just crude?
01:55:59 SPEAKER_307: Because you know you can't just swap out one form of crude for another, and prices are going to stay high even after a reopening.
01:56:06 SPEAKER_307: There's going to be a while before things start to flow again, even if it's a fairly short closure.
01:56:11 SPEAKER_307: And as I said, the shale is not going to be the answer to fill in the gaps.
01:56:16 SPEAKER_307: Okay, so to be fair, if the linear model is right—that is, the neoclassical economic model—then we'll see everything resolved in the next year or so.
01:56:23 SPEAKER_307: If my model is closer, or I mean, if the you know kind of the system dynamics model is closer, then
01:56:29 SPEAKER_307: the effects will compound, and some of them are going to be permanent.
01:56:41 SPEAKER_307: Can we say biophysical economics model?
01:56:46 SPEAKER_307: Can we say that?
01:56:50 SPEAKER_307: Sure, sure.
01:56:52 SPEAKER_307: Thank you.
01:56:53 SPEAKER_307: Yeah.
01:56:54 SPEAKER_307: Anything other than neoclassical, right?
01:56:59 SPEAKER_307: This has been predicted for a long time.
01:57:06 SPEAKER_307: Yeah.
01:57:07 SPEAKER_307: Um.
01:57:08 SPEAKER_307: So let's watch the diesel price and see where that goes, and see what that looks like in six months.
01:57:26 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
01:57:27 SPEAKER_307: Um.
01:57:27 SPEAKER_307: Yeah, and I showed last time that I think, especially with the closure, that energy transition is very unlikely.
01:57:35 SPEAKER_383: There's going to be so much pressure on just trying to maintain the, you know, sort of a business as usual as much as possible.
01:57:44 SPEAKER_383: People are just going to be desperate just to keep things at the basic levels.
01:57:50 SPEAKER_383: And I don't think anybody's going to have time to be looking at alternatives.
01:57:56 SPEAKER_383: So, I think the closure is worse than expected.
01:57:59 SPEAKER_383: Oil is not easily transferred from, you know, one source to another, and the fact that we're going to be losing fifty-five percent of the sulfur means that there's no sulfuric acid.
01:58:11 SPEAKER_307: This is going to attack mining worldwide, and then.
01:58:15 SPEAKER_307: And as we've already discussed, that reservoir neglect just becomes a lasting problem, unrecoverable after about three and a half years.
01:58:23 SPEAKER_307: So that's mine.
01:58:24 SPEAKER_307: Go ahead, ask questions.
01:58:27 SPEAKER_307: Okay.
01:58:28 SPEAKER_307: Thanks, John.
01:58:29 SPEAKER_307: So I did have a question that came to me about because Trump was recently showing a map of ships and he was saying that there was a lot of ships headed to America to pick up oil and people were like saying how well America is going to be making more sales.
01:59:06 SPEAKER_381: I was wondering who knows about this and what if what's the reality here?
01:59:16 SPEAKER_381: One hundred twenty-one ships.
01:59:18 SPEAKER_381: One hundred twenty-one.
01:59:21 SPEAKER_381: Dan, can
01:59:22 SPEAKER_381: you tell us more about BLCCs?
01:59:23 SPEAKER_381: And the next question you say, okay, what are they going to be picking up here?
01:59:26 SPEAKER_381: Well, you can't ship it from Cushing, Oklahoma, because the structure.
01:59:28 SPEAKER_381: So more likely, it's going to be coming out of our SPR, and that's where we're going to have a problem.
01:59:32 SPEAKER_381: Okay, so basically, I'm saying is that Donald Trump and the American people are going to collide, whether we're ever going to put anything on those ships.
01:59:37 SPEAKER_381: Oh, I see.
01:59:38 SPEAKER_381: So we don't we don't even know if we have anything to put on them because it's not coming out of Cushing, so the only thing available is the SPRs there on the coast of Salt Caverns.
01:59:45 SPEAKER_381: They're in Texas and Louisiana.
01:59:46 SPEAKER_381: So it would it would basically be the U.S.
01:59:47 SPEAKER_381: kind of subsidizing.
01:59:48 SPEAKER_381: Right now, right now, the Department of Energy is putting up oil up for sale out of the SPR, and it's basically being pumped right now.
01:59:53 SPEAKER_381: But I'm saying right now, okay, politically, that's going to collide.
01:59:55 SPEAKER_381: I see.
01:59:55 SPEAKER_381: Okay.
01:59:55 SPEAKER_381: So we're not even sure if those ships are going to be leaving anytime soon.
01:59:58 SPEAKER_381: Well, it may not collide because American news media refuses to report on things like that, the only place I've seen the good reports on Asia, and I'll reference everybody: NHK from Japan is reporting what's happening in Asia.
02:00:05 SPEAKER_381: I also watch India Times too, Barbara.
02:00:07 SPEAKER_381: Ah, yeah, Nippon and yeah, Nippon there in Japan and Asia, and India Times they're in India, so yeah.
02:00:10 SPEAKER_381: Yeah, but none of the U.S.
02:00:11 SPEAKER_381: folks are picking up any reality around the world, they're they're just playing political mind games.
02:00:14 SPEAKER_381: So I don't I don't see the collision happening because I I don't see enough people in North America realizing what's happening to to actually make an impact.
02:00:20 SPEAKER_381: Okay.
02:00:21 SPEAKER_381: Oh, I just noticed there was another question for Simon that I had missed earlier, and it was asking about.
02:00:46 SPEAKER_307: Entropy juggler asks, "How about going for a diplomacy, peace, and cooperative resolution approach before framing things in a hemispherical division?" Oh, just got unmute there.
02:01:17 SPEAKER_381: Oh, are you still muted, Simon?
02:01:19 SPEAKER_381: Sorry.
02:01:19 SPEAKER_381: Okay, there you go.
02:01:20 SPEAKER_381: Okay.
02:01:20 SPEAKER_381: Do they mean, for example, that's what we should do, or would do, or I, I think that they just wanted to know if you had a diplomacy, peace, cooperative scenario.
02:01:27 SPEAKER_381: Yes, um, not a conventional one.
02:01:28 SPEAKER_381: So this is this is empire building stuff.
02:01:30 SPEAKER_381: But history is littered with these sorts of things.
02:01:32 SPEAKER_381: You know, psychopaths.
02:01:33 SPEAKER_381: We're going to.
02:01:34 SPEAKER_381: This is how nation states are created.
02:01:35 SPEAKER_381: That's also how they're destroyed.
02:01:36 SPEAKER_381: This is how empires are removed, but also created.
02:01:38 SPEAKER_381: Proved, but alone created.
02:01:39 SPEAKER_381: So this, this, this is, yeah.
02:01:41 SPEAKER_381: So, so when something fundamental changes, like energy or money, this is we often see this sort of behaviour.
02:01:45 SPEAKER_381: My basic approach with all of this, um, was it the phrase "never try and teach a pig to sing" ?
02:01:50 SPEAKER_381: You not only waste your time, you upset the pig.
02:01:52 SPEAKER_381: That seems to be the problem in trying to actually talk to people at the moment.
02:01:55 SPEAKER_381: Through virtue of their world view of how industry, finance, energy, environment management, worldview, all of it is geared towards a fundamentally different viewpoint.
02:02:01 SPEAKER_381: I talk to them in terms of you know what's their physical flows.
02:02:04 SPEAKER_381: You know, you know.
02:02:05 SPEAKER_381: Hat tip to Charlie.
02:02:06 SPEAKER_381: What I'm really talking about is biophysics.
02:02:07 SPEAKER_381: Now, instead of trying to talk to people at stuff they don't want to hear, because that doesn't seem to work, and if you even remotely successful, you end up inspiring an immune response, and then
02:02:15 SPEAKER_381: they come after you, right?
02:02:57 SPEAKER_381: And then
02:03:13 SPEAKER_381: hilarity ensues, and you find yourself in flame wars that are not productive, yeah, in any way, shape, or form.
02:03:26 SPEAKER_381: So my plan is this, and it is a diplomatic solution: develop a parallel system on a very small scale.
02:03:40 SPEAKER_381: Have that parallel system become apparent to everyone?
02:03:45 SPEAKER_381: The diplomatic solution comes when people observe for themselves that what they're doing doesn't work, but there's a physical example on the ground or something that does work.
02:04:04 SPEAKER_384: And regardless of what you tell them, you should do
02:04:11 SPEAKER_381: this or you should know, they will say, "Oh, I'll have one of those, please." And at that point, they'll realize that shooting each other, taking each other's stuff, that's exhausting.
02:04:26 SPEAKER_381: When really, what they could be doing was building a parallel system according to different rules and a different paradigm.
02:04:35 SPEAKER_381: Small scale, short value chain, regional control.
02:04:38 SPEAKER_381: There's a vast amount of energy and time, being and resources put into centralized control because you know that's what you know.
02:04:49 SPEAKER_384: The essentially the fossil fuels economy lent itself to that, right?
02:04:54 SPEAKER_384: So a new paradigm is going to come on, and when people see it, I'll naturally migrate to it.
02:05:03 SPEAKER_384: Telling people to not be nasty to each other and do
02:05:09 SPEAKER_384: gooder that doesn't seem to work.
02:05:12 SPEAKER_307: Especially when there's people out there being nasty to the average person.
02:05:19 SPEAKER_307: Yep.
02:05:19 SPEAKER_307: You know, we we sometimes miss how bad life has become for the lower two thirds in the United States, and and so it and and they and they don't realize where it's coming from, right?
02:05:40 SPEAKER_307: So showing them another option is certainly a good idea, Simon.
02:05:46 SPEAKER_307: What's interesting though is the fact that that happens in the first place.
02:05:54 SPEAKER_307: Why does that happen in the first place?
02:05:58 SPEAKER_307: We take it for granted because it happens so often.
02:06:04 SPEAKER_384: Why do they do
02:06:06 SPEAKER_384: that in the first place?
02:06:08 SPEAKER_384: They generate a fear reaction.
02:06:10 SPEAKER_384: So, what are they afraid of, and why are they afraid of the average person?
02:06:16 SPEAKER_384: Well, as a member of the lower two thirds, I wanted to say that I'm wondering why are they not slowing down air travel like now?
02:06:26 SPEAKER_384: Yeah.
02:06:27 SPEAKER_384: No, you said.
02:06:28 SPEAKER_384: Look, look.
02:06:29 SPEAKER_384: Europe has six weeks left, right?
02:06:31 SPEAKER_384: And we have okay.
02:06:32 SPEAKER_384: Obviously, we're giving it all away or whatever.
02:06:36 SPEAKER_384: You know, selling it supposedly.
02:06:38 SPEAKER_384: Why are we not doing that?
02:06:40 SPEAKER_384: Because the thing about it is, you want to keep people eating instead of flying around for no purpose, in my opinion.
02:06:48 SPEAKER_384: But nobody.
02:06:49 SPEAKER_307: According to according to President of American Airlines, we have until May, I guess, is when jet fuel problems start here in the United States.
02:06:59 SPEAKER_307: Holy crap!
02:07:00 SPEAKER_307: Yeah.
02:07:00 SPEAKER_384: Well, I think it's it's either because to to do
02:07:04 SPEAKER_384: that to to really and and they did slow down air travel some with with for example the problems in the U.S.
02:07:11 SPEAKER_384: with with traffic control and such.
02:07:13 SPEAKER_384: So they they've slowed it down without admitting that what was causing it.
02:07:18 SPEAKER_384: People have stopped booking so much.
02:07:20 SPEAKER_384: They they've cut some flights, but I think it's because.
02:07:23 SPEAKER_307: As soon as you stop air travel, you admit that the catastrophe is here.
02:07:28 SPEAKER_307: They've already cancelled a lot of flights already, Barbara.
02:07:31 SPEAKER_307: Like you said, they did it on the slide.
02:07:34 SPEAKER_307: Well, they did it with another excuse, right?
02:07:36 SPEAKER_307: In the U.S., which was really nice, right?
02:07:39 SPEAKER_307: So, so that apparently has all been orchestrated.
02:07:42 SPEAKER_307: It didn't occur to me why, but for example, my family cancelled summer travel plans.
02:07:47 SPEAKER_307: We just looked at it and said, we're going to be damned if we're sleeping in an airport somewhere for two weeks looking for a car to rent to get home.
02:07:57 SPEAKER_307: " And so there is a follow-up question from Entropy Juggler open to everyone.
02:08:02 SPEAKER_307: that?
02:08:02 SPEAKER_307: " They go, " Really, really?
02:08:03 SPEAKER_307: Right, you come here.
02:08:04 SPEAKER_307: " I just looked.
02:08:05 SPEAKER_307: I'd like just like to make a point that can we stop using the word entropy?
02:08:07 SPEAKER_307: And I'm working a lot on that with other people about the misuse of the word energy.
02:08:11 SPEAKER_307: I like LGS, LGH, low grade heat, as a second law product, not entropy.
02:08:13 SPEAKER_307: And that's I'm trying to get our group organised.
02:08:15 SPEAKER_307: into a statement, but I just when we talk about what we're doing, what I was talking about energy, not entropy.
02:08:19 SPEAKER_307: Okay, what I was referring to there is I've got a there's an industrial simulate thermochemical simulation software called HSC, and in it you can work out the thermochemical energy that's been consumed from an industrial process by assembling different elements together, like a hydromet versus a flotation cell versus you know whatever, and one of the outcomes of that that we're looking at is industrial entropy.
02:08:31 SPEAKER_307: Now it may be a mislabel, it may be a mislabel, but this is what they're trying to do.
02:08:34 SPEAKER_307: What they're trying to assess is how complex is this system versus how simple this system is.
02:08:37 SPEAKER_307: That's what I was referring.
02:08:38 SPEAKER_307: It actually wasn't.
02:08:39 SPEAKER_307: Well, we all come back to Tainter, Tainter's collapse of complex society systems.
02:08:41 SPEAKER_307: you know, there's it's all of this in my lifetime.
02:08:43 SPEAKER_307: I'm 82, and all my lifetime, it's it's nothing new here.
02:08:45 SPEAKER_307: Yeah, yeah.
02:08:45 SPEAKER_307: So, so how do how do we rank industrial systems?
02:08:47 SPEAKER_307: If I've got two process blowcharts to actually sort of make copper out of, you know, and we've got two process routes, how do I rank the complexity of those?
02:08:52 SPEAKER_307: And that that that was the purpose of that metric in that software.
02:08:55 SPEAKER_307: Yeah, I also usually is a better word than entropy, isn't it, Simon?
02:08:57 SPEAKER_307: Yeah, yeah, but but so I didn't.
02:08:58 SPEAKER_307: What was the word you used?
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